- In today's ESPN-run, 24/7 media, microwave, now now now, sports society, there is no patience. There's no stepping back and refraining from knee jerking. There's no research, there's rarely any facts to back up claims from fans and media types. That's why this latest uproar over the Mavericks is just ridiculous.
- Let's establish what the Mavericks are and what they lack, and what their future is.
- What they are (Disclaimer - this is when healthy)
1) A top tier team (when healthy) who has won 60, 52, 58, 60, 67, and 55 wins (2008 projected), and a team who has been to an NBA Finals within the past 2 years.
2) A team that is 22-6 against the supposed "bulldog" Western Conference this year.
3) A team that up until injuries to 3 of their top rotation guys, was among the most dominant and impressive in the league. (See below for the case on that).
- What they lack -
1) Backup point guard - We know by now what Jet Terry isn't, he's not a point guard. We do know he's a dynamite, albeit streaky, shooter, their instant offense off of the bench along with Jerry Stackhouse, and their #2 clutch 4th quarter scoring option behind Dirk. JJ Barea is NBA D-League garbage. A team with NBA Title hopes should not have JJ Facking Barea as their backup poing guard.
2) Health -
a) This is a true "sum of the parts" type team. This is not a superstar driven team. Yes, Dirk's the star, he takes the big shots, he's the go-to guy. But he alone cannot get it done. If there's one complaint I can agree with on this team, it's the over-reliance on the system or the role players.
b) They rely on role players playing their part in order to sum out to a dominant team.
- Erick Dampier MUST be down low protecting the rim.
- Jason Terry MUST come off the bench to play the 2 guard and be a reliable outside shooter.
- Jerry Stackhouse MUST come off the bench and be the nuts of the team and be instant offense.
- Devin Harris MUST supply speed & athleticism on the perimeter, drive to the basket, set up the offense, and run the break.
- Josh Howard MUST drive the lane, run the floor, be long on defense, and hit the mid-range jumper.
c) You take any of these cogs out of the machine, let alone 3, and you have a team that is suddenly pushing everyone up a couple of spots on the assembly line. Guys are in spots they are in no way good enough for.
d) You're telling me a team that now has JJ Barea running the point, JET Terry playing out of position, a regressing Diop protecting the rim, and the triumvarate of Trenton Hassell, Eddie Jones, and Devean George trying to imitate the Stack/JET roles is going to be successful?
3) A proper evaluation of what Josh Howard is - I haven't liked this guy since the Finals run in 2006. He's a nice player, don't get me wrong, but people around here SEVERELY overrate him. He's NOT the 2nd All-Star Dirk needs beside him. He's fancied himself a jump shooter. He doesn't even attempt to make a big shot or want the pressure associated with the 4th quarter. Without a point guard running the floor and without a run game on offense, he becomes a guy who lives on the 3 point line and thinks he's Reggie Miller.
- What the future holds -
1) Here's my plan - Get healthy. Stop overreacting. 2 starters and another heavy minutes guy are gone!!
2) Right now, in season, see if you can shop around for a backup point guard and a shooter (whether a guard or shooting big man). Don't blow anything up yet. If you have to touch the top 6-7 players on your team to get a trade done, don't do it. Roll with this team.
3) The West is not as strong as people would have you believe. Dallas, when healthy, can handle anyone out there. They are as strong as any team around when all of their parts are healthy.
4) This offseason (given they don't win the championship), shop Josh Howard. Sell on this guy right now. Declare anyone outside of Dirk on the block. Tell Dirk to take this summer off and enforce it. I only do all of this, if at the end of the year, I have decided that this current mix will never have a full season of health, and is too injury plagued. That's when I blow this thing up.
Bottom Line -
- This is nothing more than pure overreaction without stepping back and taking a look at facts and what has already gone on this season.
- All the calls for blowing this thing up will only hold water for me if they continue to be injury plagued. If none of these players can stay healthy, than I'll get on board with shipping a lot of these guys and re-stucturing the roster. But right now, I'm holding on to the belief that this injury bug will pass.
- They struggled early as Dirk allowed role players to find their places and get minutes, shots, and experience. And also to allow Josh Howard to hopefully grow into a reliable 2nd All Star on the team.
- Avery has gotten burned in the playoffs when he has to rely on his bench. Because these bench guys never got the minutes in the regular season, when they got thrust into the playoff spotlight, they were horrible. He has vowed not to let that happen this year. Thus the early season struggles.
- Once Dampier came back healthy and Devin Harris came into his own in December, they took off, beat good teams, had players in the exact roles they needed to be and looked as good of a team as they ever have.
- Guys went to the roles they belonged to. Devean George and Trenton Hassell became 8th and 9th men. JJ Barea was in the D-League. Diop was spelling Dampier for only 15 minutes a night. JET and Stack were coming off of the bench. Harris was attacking the rim. And Dirk was finally Dirk. To the post-2000 Maverick fan, it wasn't impressive because they just look at the total Win/Loss record. But to the informed basketball fan, they were more of a well-rounded team than they ever have been. They were slowing it down, they were running, they were playing great defense, and they were rolling.
Check out this run in Decemeber, the only stretch this team was full healthy.
- New Orleans - W
- Houston - W
- Orlando - W
- Phoenix - W
- Golden State - W
- Detroit - W
- LA Lakers - W
- Denver - W
- Take Barbosa, Bell, and Diaw off of Phoenix and tell me what you get. Take Billups and McDyess off of Detroit and tell me what you get. Take away 3 starters/heavy minute guys off of any team, and you get a fractured team.
- This team is better equipped now than when they were in Miami in 2006. When they were 6 minutes away from going up 3-0 in the NBA Finals. I didn't realize what a 100% healthy Erick Dampier meant to them. He was dominating the paint and cutting down on the lay-up line that you're seeing now. And what a difference an improved Devin Harris meant for the team. He supplies the speed edge on a team that lacks it overall. He can neutralize the speed of Steve Nash, Tony Parker, and Chris Paul. He can make them work on defense by driving the lane and running the floor. And he makes Josh Howard a lot better by running the floor with him and getting him mid-range jumpers.
- I also hope this proves to everyone that Josh Howard IS NOT a superstar, or reliable. What makes Dirk all that more amazing is what the team has done post-Nash. Every dominant team has at least 2 bona-fide, no doubt All Stars. Dallas has 1. It's why teams can triple team him and get away with it. And yet, post-Steve Nash, on a team with Dirk and bunch of above average guys, the team has won 58, 60, and 67 games, and had an NBA Finals appearance.
- Imagine if Dirk had a legit star next to him like San Antonio and Phoenix have? So to see all that Dirk has accomplished when the opposing team knows who the ball is going to in the 4th quarter, is quite impressive. I don't think he gets enough credit for Dallas' success the past few years. People don't bring up his lack of support enough.
- I'll remain the only one on this bus. This current mix has proven to me it can beat the top teams, can come within 6 minutes of an NBA Championship, and can make this thing happen when healthy. It's a marathon, what happens in February will be long forgotten in March.
- Pitchers and Catchers report tomorrow. Glorious baseball returns.
Rangers Spring Training quick hits
2007 record
75-87, fourth place, AL West
Projected batting order
1. DH Frank Catalanotto
.260 BA, .337 OBP, .444 SLG, 11 HR, 44 RBI in 2007
2. 2B Ian Kinsler
.263 BA, .355 OBP, .441 SLG, 20 HR, 61 RBI in 2007
3. SS Michael Young
.315 BA, .366 OBP, .418 SLG, 9 HR, 94 RBI in 2007
4. CF Josh Hamilton
.292 BA, .368 OBP, .554 SLG, 19 HR, 47 RBI in 2007
5. 3B Hank Blalock
.257 BA, .350 OBP, .471 SLG, 19 HR, 70 RBI in 2007
6. RF Milton Bradley
.306 BA, .402 OBP, .545 SLG, 13 HR, 37 RBI in 2007
7. 1B Ben Broussard
.275 BA, .330 OBP, .404 SLG, 7 HR, 29 RBI in 2007
8. LF Marlon Byrd
.307 BA, .355 OBP, .459 SLG, 10 HR, 70 RBI in 2007
9. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
.266 BA, .310 OBP, .422 SLG, 11 HR, 31 RBI in 2007
Projected rotation
1. Kevin Millwood, 10-14, 5.16 ERA in 2007
2. Vicente Padilla, 6-10, 5.76 in 2007
3. Jason Jennings, 2-9, 6.45 in 2007
4. Brandon McCarthy, 5-10, 4.87 in 2007
5. Kason Gabbard, 6-1, 4.65 in 2007
Projected bullpen
Closer: C.J. Wilson, 12/14 saves, 3.03 ERA in 2007
RH setup man: Joaquin Benoit, 7-4, 2.85 in 2007
LH setup man: Eddie Guardado, 0-0, 7.24 ERA in 2007
The new guys
Josh Hamilton: The Rangers went looking for a power-hitting outfielder and picked up Hamilton from the Reds for pitcher Edinson Volquez. Hamilton has a history of injuries and personal issues, but he also had a .918 OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) last year. The Rangers haven't had an outfielder with that high of an OPS since Juan Gonzalez in 1999. If he stays healthy, Hamilton could be an impact bat in the middle of the lineup. He also has a powerful throwing arm that should be a highlight of the Rangers outfield defense.
Jason Jennings: The Rangers signed him after dealing Volquez to the Reds. Jennings was hurt all of 2007 and ended up having elbow surgery. But he had a 3.78 ERA in 212 innings for the Rockies in 2006, and the Rangers hope that's the kind of pitcher they are getting. If they do, Jennings could be a solid No. 3 starter behind Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla. He is from Dallas and is a free agent after the season. The Rangers hope those are powerful motivators.
Milton Bradley: A favorite of manager Ron Washington, Bradley is coming off knee surgery but is hoping to be ready for Spring Training. If so, he'll be the starting right fielder. He is solid offensively and defensively and plays the game hard but has a hard time staying healthy. He had over 500 at-bats in a season just once in his eight-year Major League career.
Ben Broussard: Another Washington favorite who is trying to re-establish himself as an everyday first baseman after filling a utility role for the Mariners in 2007. Washington said he is an above-average first baseman and the manager is going to give Broussard a chance to play every day, including against left-handers. His career 162-game averages are .267 with 27 doubles, 20 home runs and 73 RBIs.
Eddie Guardado: A left-handed reliever who has 183 career saves, Guardado is competing with C.J. Wilson for the closer's role. He pitched in 15 games last season after sitting out a year because of Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery. He allowed just one run in his last 9 2/3 innings last season, giving the Rangers hope that he'll be ready to go in Spring Training.
Kazuo Fukumori: The right-handed reliever from Japan was 4-2 with a 4.75 ERA and 17 saves in 34 games for the Tohuku Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2007 before undergoing surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow. He had 21 saves and a 2.17 ERA in 2006. The Rangers will likely take it slow with him in Spring Training.
Prospects to watch
Eric Hurley: He was 7-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 15 games at Double-A Frisco and 4-7 with a 4.91 ERA in 13 games at Triple-A Oklahoma. The Rangers will give him a good look in spring but probably will let him keep pitching at Triple-A. He could definitely come quick.
Taylor Teagarden: The former Texas Longhorn has overcome elbow and back issues, hitting .310 with 27 home runs and 83 RBIs in 110 games between Class A Bakersfield and Double-A Frisco. He is still building up endurance behind the plate as he caught just 44 games last year while being used as a DH in 66.
Matt Harrison: A left-handed pitcher acquired in the Mark Teixeira trade, Harrison was 5-7 with a 3.39 ERA in 20 starts at Double-A and 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA in seven starts in the Arizona Fall League. Probably headed for Triple-A.
German Duran: He hit .300 with 22 home runs and 84 RBIs as an All-Star second baseman for Frisco. He is coming to camp with a chance to earn a job as a utility player. The Rangers have used him in the outfield and third base over the winter and may even look at him at first base.
Returning from injury
Hank Blalock: He missed over three months of last season after undergoing shoulder surgery on May 21. He returned in September but was limited to designated hitter duty. He said he is at full strength now and ready to return to third base for Spring Training. He is obviously a huge key for the Rangers.
Brandon McCarthy: His season last year was cut short because of blister problems and a stress fracture in his right shoulder blade. The Rangers are counting on a full season from him as their No. 4 starter. They'd like to get 180 innings out of him.
Joaquin Arias: Once a top prospect, Arias missed just about all of last season with a shoulder injury. Now he is in danger of falling behind Elvis Andrus in the Rangers' organizational depth chart. He needs a big year at Triple-A.
On the rebound
Vicente Padilla: He missed two months last year because of an elbow injury but was 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA in his last eight starts. The Rangers may go slower with him in Spring Training but they definitely need him back to his 15-win form of 2006. Padilla has spent the winter in Nicaragua and the Rangers won't know what they have until Spring Training.
Kevin Millwood: He should be the Opening Day starter for the third straight year and his importance to the team can't be overstated. He was 6-7 with a 6.16 ERA before the All-Star break and 4-7 with a 4.29 ERA after the break. The Rangers have been pleased with his offseason conditioning program.
Frank Francisco: He had a 3.78 ERA with an opponents' batting average of .224 in the first half of last season and a 5.54 ERA in the second half while opponents hit .302 off him. The Rangers are still waiting for him to regain the overpowering stuff he had a few years ago before missing almost two full seasons because of Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery.
Kameron Loe: The right-hander was 6-11 with a 5.36 ERA in 23 starts last year and had a 5.40 ERA in five relief appearances. He also spent time on the disabled list with lower back tightness. The Rangers have used him as a starter in the past but he comes to camp this spring as a bullpen candidate.
Long gone
Sammy Sosa: He led the Rangers in home runs and drove in 92 runs but the Rangers decided not to re-sign him. Their biggest concern was a .222 batting average and a .410 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching.
Brad Wilkerson: Injuries kept him from being the players expected they were getting from the Washington Nationals for Alfonso Soriano. He showed some power last year filling in at first base for Teixeira, but the Rangers wanted a more natural first baseman and traded for Broussard instead.
Akinori Otsuka: The right-handed reliever was having an excellent season until he started experiencing elbow problems at the end of June. He did not pitch again over the final three months of the season and the Rangers weren't comfortable with where he was this offseason. They non-tendered him in December.
Triple play: Three questions that need answers
1. Who will be the closer?
Both Guardado and Wilson are on the record as saying they want the job. The Rangers are non-committal. Joaquin Benoit has done it on occasion and Fukumori was a closer in Japan. The Rangers probably won't rush him into the job.
2. Who will be the catcher?
Jarrod Saltalamacchia can play first base, but the Rangers want him to concentrate on catching. That puts him in direction competition with Gerald Laird, who was their Opening Day catcher in 2007. It's hard to imagine the Rangers letting Saltalamacchia sit around as a backup and it's hard to imagine Laird settling for that role.
3. Who will be the cleanup hitter?
Sosa was the Rangers' primary cleanup hitter last year, but Marlon Byrd did it for much of the final two months. Blalock is the only player on the roster who has driven in over 100 runs in a season, but Washington seems reluctant to put him in the cleanup spot. This may be the right spot for Hamilton.
The bottom line
Everybody needs to show they are healthy and be productive. The Rangers may have more "what-ifs" on this team than they ever had going into Spring Training.
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