Cuban panics

- Panic, panic, panic.

- What I don't like about it -

1) Devin Harris provided a jump shooting team its only attack the basket player. He could drive and attack, or drive and kick it out for a jumper.

2) He neutralized Tony Parker and Steve Nash's speed when Dallas played San Antonio and Phoenix. Parker no longer blew by Dallas and into the paint as much, and Nash had to work on defense and could barely keep up with Harris on that end of the floor. This turned the tables in the 2006 playoffs when Harris was inserted into the starting lineup against both teams. That speed edge is now gone. I'm a subscriber to the theory that Speed Kills, in any sport. If you have speed, you win. The Mavericks no longer have speed.

3) Harris was enjoying his best season so far, and at age 24. 48% from the floor, 14 pts a game, 5 assists, and 36% from 3's. Kidd's numbers have trended down, is 35, costs 5 times as much, and has played in a weaker conference.

4) So what is Kidd going to do? Set up jump shooters? The jump shooting problem of this team is still present. No one attacks the rim. They don't have the athleticism on the perimeter, outside of maybe Josh Howard, to have the high flying attack the rim style that Kidd would be good at.

5) So on the team's bread and butter play, the pick and pop, how is Kidd an upgrade? He's a worse shooter than Harris, and can't attack the rim like Harris can when they get a switch. So they'll be running the same plays, but with a worse shooter and penetrator running the point.

6) So Dallas now has to depend on Erick Dampier to be their sole low post defender? When healthy, he's exactly what they need down low. But the problem is, he's never fully healthy. So now who guards Tim Duncan, David West, and Amare Stoudemire when Dampier is either in foul trouble or injured?


- What I can live with -

- If I just have to find positives, be able to move forward, and force myself not to boycott the Mavericks, I guess these will have to do.

- Shawn McCawley, phD, with degrees from Tommy Thomas University and West Stonebriar College, sent me these.

- His assumptions of what Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson may have been thinking.....

- The team is in a funk
- Harris will not stay healthy
- They are done with Ager and Diop
- Dirk has 2 more elite years
- They want to play more small ball like Golden State
- Bass is a long term player
- Shaq and GasPau does not scare them
- They are never going to get healthy with the current team
- If they can re-sign Stack, it will be better.
- Howard, Dirk, Damp, Bass, Jet, and Jones should get very good looks.
- This will provide a spark, not sure how long it will last though.
- Really doesn't care that DH is 25 and Kidd is 35. The window is now plus 2 seasons which is Dirk's window.
- It is all about super stars and Dallas has 2 now.
- In 3 years they will be starting over anyway and he's not convinced Harris will be part of that.

- I still hate it, but whatever, this is the bed that's made, I now must sleep in it.




- John Hollinger agrees with me......

Kidd trade is risky business for Mavs

The Lakers must be falling over with laughter by now.

In the wake of their acquisition of Pau Gasol -- a trade that cost them nothing of value -- two of their biggest rivals for Western Conference supremacy responded by dealing key pieces of their core for Eastern Conference legends in their mid-30s. First, of course, came Phoenix's deal for Shaquille O'Neal last week, and now the Mavericks have jumped in with today's close-to-completion deal for Jason Kidd.

This isn't nearly as bad as the Shaq trade -- let me get that out of the way up front. But it has the same whiff of panic to it, coming as it did after the Mavs suffered consecutive whippings at the hands of second-tier Eastern teams, and following Mark Cuban's insistence that Dallas wouldn't unload half its team for Kidd.

But that's exactly what they're about to do. Dallas is about to send Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, DeSagana Diop, Devean George, Maurice Ager, cash and two first-round picks to New Jersey for Kidd, Antoine Wright, Malik Allen and a second-rounder. (Technically it would be two trades, with Wright for a No. 2 as a side deal in order to meet league roster requirements).

Obviously, the two protagonists are Kidd and Harris. So let me ask you a provocative question that I brought up when the three-way version of this deal was kicked around: Would you trade Harris for Kidd, straight up?

Based on notoriety alone, most would offer a quick yes. But shine that light a little closer. Kidd's PER this season is 16.07, while Harris is way ahead at 18.66. This may shock some people who have only seen the reports of his triple-doubles, but Kidd is scoring at a much lower rate this season, shooting a hideous 36.7 percent from the field, and his turnover rate has skyrocketed. While he's far from the only culprit, his decline is one reason the Nets are 25th in offensive efficiency; the Mavs, in contrast, are second with Harris as quarterback.

Per 40 minutes, Harris averages nearly seven points more; that's huge. He also gets to the line more than twice as often and shoots a far better percentage from the field. His true shooting percentage of 59.2 dwarfs Kidd's 48.3. Think about that difference for a second -- for every nine shots they take (including free-throw sessions), Harris has a one-point advantage.

Finally, Harris is a huge plus at the defensive end, where he has the quickness to defend the Parkers, Pauls and Nashes of the West and was second in the league in offensive fouls drawn last season, according to 82games.com. By my methods, he was the best defensive point guard in the league in 2006-07. Unfortunately, the one guy he struggled against was Baron Davis, a fact that may be seared in the Mavs' memories given how last season ended.

Kidd's two big advantages are passing and rebounding, and they're gargantuan differences, make no mistake. But if you break it down, it seems his numbers in those two categories might decline in Dallas' system.

As far as assists go, the Mavs are one of the league's most isolation-heavy teams and annually have among the league's lowest rates of assisted baskets; the Nets are the opposite and are annually among the highest. It's possible Dallas changes some of that to take advantage of Kidd, of course, but somehow I imagine the high-post isos for Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard will remain the bread-and-butter of the offense.

Additionally, Kidd's passing skills are most lethal in transition, but the Mavs run infrequently. While some still imagine this as a Wild West Don Nelson outfit, Dallas has been one of the league's slowest-paced teams ever since Avery Johnson took over.

On the rebounds, New Jersey's frontcourt rebounding was historically bad for the first two months of this season, as I mentioned in another piece earlier on -- leaving a ton of boards available for Kidd to grab. In fact, Kidd's rebound rate has declined quite a bit since Josh Boone took over for Jason Collins, as fewer caroms were left over for the guards. Similarly, he won't have as many boards available for him to snag in Dallas, where the Mavs are already seventh in the league in defensive rebound rate (nearly all of Kidd's boards are defensive).

OK, so he won't score as much as Harris and he might lose a bit on his rebounds and assists. One can still come up with some offsetting positives. For starters, Kidd is a leader in a locker room that appears in need of one. Dallas' testicular fortitude has been questioned in the past two postseasons, so perhaps he can make a difference there. And it's possible he'll be more motivated in Big D than he was in New Jersey; at the very least, I suspect he'll suffer from fewer headaches.

In addition, Kidd is a good defender against bigger guards, which means Dallas might be able to play him and Jason Terry together for 40 minutes and dispense with the 30 scoreless minutes they're getting each night from the Eddie Jones-Trenton Hassell combo. (Although just in case they get nostalgic, Wright's addition makes it a trio of wing guys who can defend but can't score).

But before you get too excited, look into the future. Kidd is 10 years older and costs five times as much; even after Harris' extension kicks in he'll be triple the cost. Which player do you think you'd rather have in 2008-09? What about in 2009-10, presuming the Mavs extend Kidd, when he'll be 36 and Harris 26?

I know, I know -- this move was made primarily with this season in mind. So let's say after all that you still like Kidd better than Harris. Do you like him so much better that you're willing to include Stackhouse and Diop and two first-round draft choices?

Diop was Dallas' starting center and best low-post defender (Side note: guess that Shaq trade had them real worried, huh?), while Stackhouse was one of their most important bench players. In fact, the irony of this trade is that a big reason for Dallas' recent struggles is that Harris and Stackhouse have been injured.

The Mavs are 4-4 since Harris went out; Stackhouse has played only once in that time, for just 11 minutes. It's an ugly 4-4 too. Of the wins, two were against Memphis and one was Milwaukee; the losses included one-sided setbacks against Detroit, New Jersey and Philadelphia.

That takes us to an aspect of this trade nobody is paying any attention to: Harris' huge impact on the Mavs' success over the past two seasons. In 2006-07, when Dallas won 67 games, guess who had the biggest on-court/off-court point differential? Hint: It wasn't the MVP. According to 82games.com, Dallas was a whopping +14.2 points per 48 minutes with Harris on the court. Moreover, the Harris-Nowitzki combo was the single most effective player combination in the league.

This year, the Harris-Terry-Howard-Nowitzki-Dampier unit has played 164 minutes together and outscored opponents by 43 points (that's a whopping 12.6 points per 48 minutes). The four most common Harris-Terry arrangements all have massively positive point differentials, adding up to an advantage of +20.7 points per 48 minutes(!). So much for the idea that you can't play two small guards together.

No, we're not done yet -- there's one final point to consider. The Nets will likely buy out Stackhouse, but there's no guarantee Dallas will be able to re-sign him; in fact, by rule they aren't allowed to for 30 days.

In the meantime, is it that hard to imagine bench-starved Cleveland diving in with the $4.1 million remaining on its midlevel exception, or the Pistons ($3.86 million) bringing him back to Motown to replace the struggling Jarvis Hayes? For that matter, what about the Spurs ($4.4 million) or Suns (full midlevel) breaking out the wampum just to spite their Western rivals? Keep in mind, too, that these salaries would be prorated for the rest of this year, lowering the luxury tax hit those teams would take.

In the final analysis, then, it seems Dallas gave up quite a bit to make what is, even with the most rose-colored glasses, a marginal upgrade at the point. It's possible it could work, but my issue with this deal is that the risk and reward seem out of line. Much like Phoenix with the Shaq deal, I can't help but wonder if the Mavs are fixated on what Kidd was 18 months ago rather than what he'll be over the next 18 months.

Let me repeat that I'm not nearly not as down on this trade as I am on Phoenix's. But on balance, I think it puts Dallas farther from a title rather than closer. And as a result, I suspect Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak may be having a quiet chuckle when he checks his Blackberry today.



- 2008 Texas Rangers Pitching Report.



Ryan makes opening pitch to Texas Rangers

New president visits spring training, begins work with Daniels


09:40 PM CST on Wednesday, February 13, 2008
By EVAN GRANT / The Dallas Morning News
egrant@dallasnews.com

SURPRISE, Ariz. – The Rangers don't officially open spring training until today, but already there is a fundamental communication problem between new president Nolan Ryan and general manager Jon Daniels.

Daniels is an e-mail fiend; Ryan barely turns his computer on.

Other than having to rely on that old-fashioned device known as a telephone, it appears the Daniels-Ryan management era has begun smoothly.

Ryan spent more than four hours Tuesday meeting with the core of the baseball operations staff, including Daniels.

He addressed the group for barely more than a minute to start the meeting. His message: He's excited, but club personnel shouldn't be nervous. Ryan said he wants to win with the people to whom he was speaking.

"It was a very positive meeting," Ryan said Wednesday. "The thing I took out of it was that I felt everybody was very comfortable with one another and with giving their opinion."

Daniels said Ryan praised the scouting and player development staff for building the farm system. The Rangers' system was recently ranked fourth among the 30 major league organizations by Baseball America.

"All the things that have been written about the organizational structure and changes – that's water cooler fodder," Daniels said. "To see him in this setting and to hear him speak, it was clear that it was just a group of baseball people with the same feelings: They want to win championships together."

Ryan was in Surprise only for the day Tuesday. He is expected to return to camp in late February for an extended stay and is likely to have a second extended stay toward the end of camp.

Ryan has not yet held similar meetings with business operations executives but is expected to be in the Arlington offices late next week.

Daniels said he intends to consult with Ryan before the Rangers set their final 25-man roster. While Tuesday's meeting was the first face-to-face, nuts-and-bolts meeting between Daniels and Ryan, the two have had several phone conversations in the last week.

"Every year, every team is going to tweak things a little," said Daniels, about to start his third season as GM. "What's different is that we'll have another experienced baseball man as part of the decision. I have no apprehensions or insecurities about this. I trust Nolan, and I trust that good baseball people are going to see the fruits of our labor."

On Wednesday, Ryan's biggest baseball activity was limited to the two minor league teams he owns. Ryan-Sanders Baseball agreed to two-year player development contract extensions with the Houston Astros for the Triple-A club in Round Rock and the Double-A team in Corpus Christi. Both contracts now run through 2010, which is also the length of the Rangers' contracts with Triple-A Oklahoma and Double-A Frisco.


REPORTING FOR DUTY
Rangers pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Surprise, Ariz., today and their first workout is Friday. A few quick hits on the pitchers:

Numbers: 28 pitchers will be in camp, including seven nonroster invitees.

Absent: RHPs Omar Beltre and Alexi Ogando remain in the Dominican Republic unable to procure U.S. work visas.

The rotation: It's is basically set with RHPs Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Brandon McCarthy, Jason Jennings and LHP Kason Gabbard. RHPs Luis Mendoza and Robinson Tejeda and LHP A.J. Murray could potentially get into the mix if there is an injury or if Gabbard badly stumbles.

The bullpen: The Rangers need some sturdy middle-innings pitchers and long relievers. There are perhaps as many as three jobs open and as many as eight pitchers fighting for them.

Decisions: Tejeda and LHP John Rheinecker are both out of options. If they don't make the club, they'd either have to be traded or exposed to waivers.

Injuries: Only RHP Thomas Diamond, who is recovering from last April's Tommy John surgery, is limited.

Prospect to watch: RHP Luis Mendoza averaged 13.4 pitches per inning and held opponents to a .297 on-base percentage in six major league appearances. Those were his only games above Double-A. He's on the outside of the rotation looking in, but a spring full of ground balls could make the Rangers think twice.

Veteran to watch: RHPs Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla and Jason Jennings are all coming off career-worst ERAs. The Rangers need all three to have strong springs and fast starts to the regular season.



- About time Tom Hicks makes a fan-friendly move.



Dallas Stars to lower ticket prices

To raise awareness, president will make 4,000 seats 37 percent cheaper

02:49 AM CST on Thursday, February 14, 2008
By MIKE HEIKA / The Dallas Morning News
mheika@dallasnews.com

FRISCO – Jeff Cogen is having a sign made that captures his philosophy as the new president of the Stars. It will read: "Nothing happens until the building is full."

Cogen, a former vice president of the Stars who returned to the team in November to take over for outgoing president Jim Lites, has had a couple of months to survey the ticket situation and the environment surrounding the team. He said he has come up with a new strategy for selling the game of hockey in Dallas.

In large part, it's the same strategy he had when he helped the Stars bring the team to Texas in 1993 – and that's get fans into games any way possible.

To help create that environment, Cogen is sending out a new ticket pricing plan to season ticket holders that next season will lower the price of about 4,000 upper bowl tickets by an average of 37 percent. He said he will release the official prices to the media once the ticket holders have been informed.

"I don't want to tread water," Cogen said. "I think it's time for bold, innovative moves."

The special pricing is only for fans who buy full-season packages, but Cogen said he believes the value is there to entice many fans to move from partial season plans up to full season plans. And he admits that he has a specific business purpose in mind.

The Stars used to have 14,000 full season tickets and a waiting list when they moved to American Airlines Center in 2001. They used to pull television ratings that hovered near 3.0. They once had a sellout streak that reached 238 consecutive games.

Now, the season ticket "comparables" (meaning the combination of all full and partial season ticket plans) is around 11,500, the television ratings hover near 0.5 and the sellout streaks are closer to three or four games in a row.

While the Stars' official average attendance ranks 12th in the league at 17,841 this season, Cogen said he wants bodies in the building from the start of the season to the end.

The former president of the Rangers and Florida Panthers said he believes there are still plenty of Stars fans out there who want to cheer for the team. The Stars marketing plan for 2008-09 will involve a season of celebrations tied to the 10-year anniversary of winning the Stanley Cup during the 1998-99 season and the 15-year anniversary of the team coming to Dallas.

"I've got the hook with the Stanley Cup and the 15-year anniversary," Cogen said. "So the push for us is: Where is this base where we used to do 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 television ratings and had a [season ticket] waiting list? I don't think they've moved. I don't think they hate us. I think they like us."

Cogen said he plans to send out the pricing packages to everyone who has ever had a season ticket with the Stars in hopes of getting bodies back in the building.

Because lower bowl tickets are selling out at about 90 percent, the pricing there will remain the same for next season. However, Cogen said he wants to add "value" to those tickets with passes to the VIP club, bonus tickets and events exclusively reserved for lower bowl season ticket holders. Cogen said he would like to bring back former Stars players to help celebrate the anniversaries at these events.

The bottom line is he wants to get fans excited about his product again. The first step in accomplishing that task, he said, is getting people to see a game.

"If we can get you into the arena, A: We can probably get you back. And B: You're going to go home and watch television and you're going to tell your friends and you're going to play stick hockey in the streets and you're going to buy our T-shirts and read the blogs," Cogen said. "That's my vision, anyway."



- Tough as nails.