- A mediocre week last week.
Last week - 9-9-1
YTD - 34-33-2
Thursday
USC (-25.5) at Oregon State - ESPN - 8:00 pm
USC has looked very impressive so far this year. They really do seem to have everything this year, a good QB, a fast and nasty defense, and a ball control, pounding offense that can also spring for some big plays in the passing game. However, there is something I can't really explain about USC. They just don't wow me like some of the other USC teams of the past 5-6 years. Those teams would go on the road in conference and take care of business and cover 20+ point spreads. These post-Leinart and Bush USC teams seem to play down to their opponents when they go on the road. Oregon State is terrible, losing to Stanford and getting blown out by Penn State. However, they have history of playing USC tough in Corvallis. 26 points is just too much.
Pick - Oregon State +25.5
Friday
Connecticut at Louisville (-3.5) - ESPN2 - 7:00 pm
Louisville has a great defense and is at home, fresh off a big win against Rutgers. Connecticut is terribly 1-dimensional, yet talented at the same time. But I just couldn't believe how ridiculous that UCONN QB looked when he attempted to throw passes. Louisville is the best in the Big East at stopping the only thing that UCONN does well, running the ball. The UCONN QB is going to be forced to throw the ball, and that won't go well.
Pick - Louisville -3.5
Saturday
Michigan State (-8) at Indiana - ESPN - 11:00 am
Indiana has a great offense, and mobile QB. They can score points. Michigan State has a great running game, but has not wowed me as a whole this year. I have to take a good offense, at home, against a mediocre team, with 8 points.
Pick - Indiana +8
North Carolina at Miami (-7.5) - ESPN2 - 11:00 am
Up until last week, I had North Carolina as my sleeper to win the weak ACC. Now that their starting QB has been lost for the year, and they are now relying on a freshman, all bets are off. As average as I think Miami is, they still have tons of athletes to harass that new QB, and they have enough skill position speed to cover a TD at home.
Pick - Miami -7.5
Minnesota at Ohio State (-18) - Big 10 Network - 11:00 am
Minnesota is somehow 4-0, beating up on 1-AA and the worst Division 1 programs in the country. Ohio State now has their future in play at the QB position, and I expect gradual improvement every week. Ohio State has too much talent to let a team like Minnesota hang with them at home. Pryor is good for 100 yards rushing, and 3 total TD's in this one.
Pick - Ohio State -18
Army at Texas A&M (-28) - Versus - 11:30 am
Texas A&M is terrible. They're worse off with Mike Sherman than Nebraska was with Bill Callahan. At least Callahan could recruit speed and have a top offense. Sherman is nothing more than an NFL digit-head. Terrible, rushed hire by knucklehead AD Bill Byrne, who's more concerned with the women's rifle team than with building a top-flight football program. Give me Army just out of principle and my hate of the NFL.
Pick - Army +28
Arkansas at Texas (-27.5) - ABC - 2:30 pm
Arkansas is terrible. Barely beating 2 directional schools, and then getting pounded by an average Alabama team (don't believe the hype on Bama) at home. Just an awful team. Texas, as I've stated previously, is flying under the radar compared with other Big 12 teams such as Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. They are really going to surprise some people. Colt McCoy is playing as well as anyone at the QB position. The offensive line is back to 2005 levels. And the defense has a new, nasty approach with Muschamp at the helm. They absolutely kill Arkansas.
Pick - Texas -27.5
Purdue at Notre Dame (-1) - NBC - 2:30 pm
How Notre Dame can be favored against any team is beyond me. Charlie Weis sucks. Notre Dame's offense sucks. The whole program is just crap. Weis touted his "schematic advantage over every team they play" on offense, and they struggle to score TD's against San Diego State. Purdue has too much offense for Notre Dame to keep up.
Pick - Purdue +1
Tennessee at Auburn (-6.5) - CBS - 2:30 pm
Tennessee is in disarray. This program has been spiraling downward ever since 1999, when they won the title. It's been a consistently average program for the past 10 years. I really can't see Fulmer still having a job in December. Auburn has a really good team, a below average offense, and nasty defense. Tennessee got embarassed at home last week to Florida, scoring only 6 points, and that's after getting embarassed by a bottom feeder in the worst conference in the nation (UCLA, Pac-10), and the embarassment will continue. No way Auburn loses 2 in a row at home, not with this good of a team.
Pick - Auburn -6.5
Wisconsin (-6) at Michigan - ESPN - 2:30 pm
Another program that I just love watching squirm and wallow in mediocrity and misery. Michigan just sucks. They'll be good eventually, just because Rich Rodriguez is a good coach and he will eventually get athletes for his offensive system, but right now, the cupboard's bare. Wisconsin has proven it can win on the road against a good team (Fresno State), and they're going against a far inferior team in Michigan.
Pick - Wisconsin -6
Houston at East Carolina (-10.5) - CBSCS - 2:30 pm
Somehow Houston lost to a terrible Colorado State last week. East Carolina somehow lost to an even worse NC State team last week. In situations like this, you have to look at both teams, decide which one's loss was more of a fluke, and bet that they rebound the following week. In this case, no doubt that it's ECU.
Pick - East Carolina -10.5
Navy at Wake Forest (-16) - ESPNU - 2:45 pm
Wake Forest dominated Florida State on the road last week. This is a good team. Well coached, disciplined, and smart. They dominate Navy.
Pick - Wake Forest -16
North Texas at Rice (-17.5) - Ch. 21 - 4:00 pm
Poor North Texas. How can a team be this terrible? Rice is not a bad team. They play tough and beat teams they should. They really can be a good team within their own demographic (i.e. their conference). They rout North Texas.
DOUBLE PLAY - Pick - Rice -17.5
TCU at Oklahoma (-18.5) - FSNSW - 6:00 pm
TCU is undefeated, confident, and has a great defense. They went into Norman in 2005 and shocked the world by beating a top 5 Oklahoma team. That year's Oklahoma team was just a tad overrated. This year's team is not. They are a totally different animal this year. TCU doesn't have near the offense to hang with Oklahoma. They may be able to slow the Oklahoma offense, but they may not score 10 points for the whole game. Stoops will not be caught off guard again against TCU.
Pick - Oklahoma -18.5
Mississippi State at LSU (-24) - ESPN2 - 6:30 pm
LSU won another thriller and an emotional game against Auburn last week. The dominating thought would be that they would have a letdown this week, against an inferior opponent, and in a far less intense environment. Not LSU, they're way too talented for that to happen.
Pick - LSU -24
South Florida (-8.5) at NC State - ESPNU - 6:30 pm
NC State somehow snuck up on East Carolina last week and upset them at home. There is no way they should have been able to beat ECU. South Florida has too many athletes, has proven it can win on the road, and no way NC State has anything left in the tank to beat a much more talented South Florida team. South Florida is damn good, and will put NC State in their place.
Pick - South Florida -8.5
Alabama at Georgia (-7) - ESPN - 6:45 pm
Alabama is a classic case of the media hyping up a signature program of a sport the minute they look like they have a sliver of hope of being good again. Alabama is not that good. They beat an overhyped Clemson team, a terrible Arkansas team, and has looked average in the other 2 games. Georgia beats them by 14 points. Alabama will lose 4 games this year, mark it down.
Pick - Georgia -7
Virginia Tech at Nebraska (-7) - ABC - 7:00 pm
I'm still not sure what to think of Nebraska. The new coaches have definitely changed the culture back to what Nebraska should be. They are more disciplined, more passionate, and there's definitely a better vibe than what was seen for the past 4 years. That said, they couldn't run the ball effectively against inferior teams, their defense has looked average, and the passing game hasn't been as good as I thought it would be. Virginia Tech is an ugly team. An ugly offense. A good defense. They definitely keep it close, and this game more than likely a 3 point game, with either team having equal chances of winning.
Pick - Virginia Tech +3
NO CROWN GAME
