- A below average picking performance last weekend was saved by my double and triple plays. Somehow I managed to finish 3 games up for the weekend.
Last week - 16-13-1
YTD - 58-57-3
DOUBLE PLAYS
- West Virginia -24
- Miami -17
- Oregon -17.5
TRIPLE PLAY
- Texas Tech -20.5
Thursday
Clemson at Wake Forest (-2.5) - ESPN - 6:30 pm
Wake Forest is a very good team, and I'm not sure what the hell happened against Navy. I like their coach too much to expect them to come out flat again, especially against a conference rival. Clemson is just too inconsistent and too overrated for me to trust them on the road.
Pick - Wake Forest -2.5
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies (-135) - FOX - 7:22 pm
I'm going with reverse psychology on this one. I hate the city of Philadelphia and all the pukes who live there. The crowd is fun to watch, they're one of the best in the league. But my favorite thing to watch is Philly fans getting suckerpunched by defeat. They have never won anything as a city, and they have a stepchild complex with NYC and Boston. I'm picking the home team on this one, but I want the Dodgers to win. So I win either way.
Pick - Philadelphia -135
Friday
Louisville (-6.5) at Memphis - ESPN - 7:00 pm
These are 2 pretty bad teams. I really don't know much, I've only seen Louisville a few times this year, and they haven't impressed me much. Memphis sucks as well, but they're at home and getting almost a touchdown. Louisville is not good enough to cover a TD on the road against anyone.
Pick - Memphis +6.5
Boston at Tampa Bay (-105) - TBS - 7:37 pm
This will be a very intense series, these teams hate each other. It will also be a very home team-intensive series. Tampa and Boston will both take care of business at home, with Tampa winning a Game 7 in the Tropicana Toilet. Tampa takes Game 1.
Pick - Tampa Bay -105
Saturday
Oklahoma (-7) at Texas - ABC - 11:00 am
The game of the day is being played during hangover hours. Lots of red eyes will be watching this one. A hard one to pick with the spread, but easy to pick straight up.
Why Oklahoma wins:
1) An offense that has yet to give in to a pass rush, allowing Sam Bradford to pick defenses apart at a historic rate.
2) Texas gets mind F'ed by Oklahoma. That is bigger than talent levels in most years when these 2 teams meet. Oklahoma has a mindset of taking no bullshat from anyone that is cultivated from their coach. Texas has a soft mentality cultivated from their preacher coach.
3) Defense is fast as hell, and Texas doesn't have a run game outside of Colt McCoy. Oklahoma will shut him down and force Texas's RB's to produce.
4) Bradford, given he gets protection (see #1), will absolutely pick apart a young, no-name secondary.
Why Texas wins:
1) Colt McCoy grows his legend and plays out of his mind. He keeps his running and throwing freak show going, and doesn't let the fact that they don't have a star running back affect outcome of the game.
2) Texas could have the best offensive line in the nation, allowing McCoy time to run and throw effectively.
3) Will Muschamp devising a way to get pressure on Bradford. Bradford is only as good as his offensive line allows him to be. He can't run, he can't avoid the rush, and he's not a scrambler. Get pressure on him, and the Oklahoma offense suddenly becomes average.
4) Special teams. Texas blocks kicks at an historic rate. As an underdog, they may need one of these.
That said, Oklahoma's pros outweigh Texas's pro's. I just can't see Texas getting enough pressure on Bradford, and I'll take Stoops over Mack any day of the week. As long as VY isn't playing.
Pick - Oklahoma -7
Minnesota at Illinois (-12.5) - ESPN - 11:00 am
As long as the Juice is playing well, Illinois can hang with anyone. Ron Zook may be a terrible coach, but he has brought athletes to Illinois. Minnesota doesn't have a very good defense, allowing some lower level teams to get into the upper 20's and 30's on them. Juice Williams is hot right now, throwing for 310 and 2 TD's, and running for 120 and 2 TD's last week at Michigan. He comes home and rolls over Minnesota.
Pick - Illinois -12.5
Syracuse at West Virginia (-24) - ESPNU - 11:00 am
Syracuse is awful. West Virginia is average, but at home, against a terrible Syracuse team, they roll to 50 points.
DOUBLE PLAY - West Virginia -24
Toledo at Michigan (-16) - Big 10 Network - 11:00 am
Michigan got rolled up on at home last week to Illinois, quickly bringing people back to earth after the Wisconsin upset. Toledo doesn't have much, they almost beat Fresno at home, but that didn't prove to be very impressive after Fresno lost to Hawaii at home last week. So I'm not sure what to think. I guess give me Michigan.
Pick - Michigan -16
Colorado at Kansas (-14) - ESPN2 - 11:30 am
Kansas needed a historical comeback last week in Ames. They struggled against a mobile, dual threat QB. Cody Hawkins is mobile, but he doesn't present the same problems that the ISU QB did. Colorado is terrible on defense, and terrible on the road. Kansas comes home and plays a solid game after last week's scare.
Pick - Kansas -14
Nebraska at Texas Tech (-20.5) - FSNSW - 2:00 pm
While Bo sifts through the Callahan mess and attempts to field a competitive team this year, I will take advantage and do Triple Plays against all ranked teams they play this year. It is really a miserable time in Lincoln. 40+ years spent building the most consistently dominant team in college football was wrecked in 4 years by an NFL con-man. It's truly depressing.
TRIPLE PLAY - TEXAS TECH -20.5
Arizona State at USC (-27.5) - ABC - 2:30 pm
Arizona State is pretty bad. Rudy Carpenter is banged up, they can't run the ball, they can't protect the QB, and their defense is awful. After yet another early season shocking loss, USC is going to roll through the rest of their schedule and be there at the end. They don't deserve anything more than a Rose Bowl bid, but they more than likley will roll through the schedule and have 1 loss.
Pick - USC -27.5
Tennessee at Georgia (-12) - CBS - 2:30 pm
Georgia is quickly buckling under inflated expectations. Tennessee is terrible all around. I just don't trust either team. I don't trust Georgia to blow anyone out. And I don't trust Tennessee to keep it close on the road. I'm conflicted. Give me the points I guess.
Pick - Tennessee +12
Purdue at Ohio State (-19) - ESPN - 2:30 pm
Purdue is pretty bad against the run, and has disappointed me on offense. Chris Wells is healthy and Tyrelle Pryor is firmly entrenched as the QB. They will begin to roll through teams in the Big 10.
Pick - Ohio State -19
Michigan State (-1.5) at Northwestern - ESPN2 - 2:30 pm
Another tough game to pick. Northwestern is 5-0, with Iowa being their best win. Michigan State has won 5 in a row after a season opening loss at Cal. In this case, I'd lean towards the team I think has more talent (MSU), and against a potential fluke team with a history of being average (NW).
Pick - Michigan State -1.5
TCU (-15) at Colorado State - CBSCS - 2:30 pm
TCU is a really good team. They do just about everything well. But Colorado State is very tough at home, and I have to take them with 15 points. TCU definitely wins, but 15 points on the road is just too much against a team that's 3-0 at home this year.
Pick - Colorado State +15
Central Florida at Miami (-17) - ESPNU - 2:45 pm
Miami actually looked decent on offense last week. UCF is pretty bad, one of the worst teams in the nation. Miami uses that offensive momentum to roll UCF this week. Too many athletes.
DOUBLE PLAY - Miami -17
Iowa State at Baylor (-4.5) - FCS - 6:00 pm
Baylor has a great coach in Art Briles who will get that program to heights it has never seen. They have a great QB in Robert Griffin who will be a major selling point to potential recruits for the next 3 years. I fully expect Baylor to pass Texas A&M in the next couple years. This will be a very entertaining game with 2 very good, young dual threat QB's. Give me the home team.
Pick - Baylor -4.5
LSU at Florida (-6) - CBS - 7:00 pm
If Texas-Oklahoma wasn't being played, this would be the no doubt game of the day. I'm not sure why Florida is laying 6 points in this one. LSU proved it could go on the road and beat Auburn. Say what you want about Auburn and their offense, but they're a top 25 team, with speed on both sides of the ball, and a bear to beat at home. LSU's defense is more than capable of defending Florida's disappointing offense. I'm not sure if LSU wins outright, but they cover 6 points.
Pick - LSU +6
Penn State (-5.5) at Wisconsin - ESPN - 7:00 pm
I have 2 things going for this pick. Wisconsin is bound to win a game after melting down 2 weeks in a row to Michigan and Ohio State. Penn State is not a top 10 team, and is just due for a loss. I have to take a ready to win Wisconsin team at home, at night, against a potentially overrated Penn State team.
Pick - Wisconsin +5.5
Oklahoma State at Missouri (-14) - ESPN2 - 7:00 pm
Not the biggest game of the day, but potentially the most exciting. Both offenses live in the 50's, with both scoring 50+ in 4 of their 5 games. Missouri has yet to be held to a 3 and out on offense. Both defenses suck, so the possibility of a blowout on either side is unlikely. Last team with the ball wins.
Pick - Oklahoma State +14
CROWN GAME
UCLA at Oregon (-17.5) - FSNSW - 10:00 pm
A very late Crown Game, even by Crown Game standards. This will be a nice nightcap. Expect tons of offense for Oregon, and expect to enjoy watching Rick Neuheisel look very feminine on the sideline. Oregon rolls.
DOUBLE PLAY - Oregon -17.5
