- After 2 weeks off licking my wounds, I'm back up on the horse and ready to ride hard and strong to the finish line. Ready to right this ship and get myself back over .500. Here we go.
YTD - 71-80-4
DOUBLE PLAYS -
Michigan State -4.5
Florida -5.5
Boston College -6.5
Oklahoma -22
Thursday
South Florida (-2.5) at Cincinnati - ESPN - 6:30 pm
South Florida comes in with 2 losses, both in conference, to Pitt at home and to Louisville on the road. South Florida is a really good team, with tons of athletes, an above average quarterback, a difference maker on the defensive line. And Cincinnati has been very average all year. Give me the athletes over a mediocre team.
Pick - South Florida -2.5
Dallas (-4) vs. Houston - TNT - 7:00 pm
One team comes into a new NBA season with hefty expectations, one team comes in with absolutely none. Houston, everyone's preseason darlings ever since Yao and McGrady joined forces, now have media types really creaming over themselves now that Ron Artest is on board. Like I say every year about Houston, I'll believe it when I see it.
At the same rate, the Mavericks are being severely underrated and overlooked. Which is completely fine with me. I see a better than expected, motivated, flying under the radar Mavs team this year.
One of my favorite websites, www.dallasbasketball.com, has tons of great points as to why this season will be a pleasant surprise to most media idiots out there.
Reason 1 - Dirk Nowitzki shows no sign of decline. In fact, The UberMan may still be on the incline. In that first-round Hornets series, Dirk averaged 26.8 points, 12 rebounds and four assists per game. He was, indeed, better than he’d been in the regular season. Those numbers are better than any collection of numbers he’s ever had over the course of a regular season. With a bum leg.
Reason 2 - They were 6 games out of 1st place. And how terrible were they late in games after Kidd trade? Very awful. I say that was a combo of a new point guard and a handcuffing coach who had that team overthinking and acting like puppets. And teams sitting on Avery’s plays. That gets fixed this year.
6 out of Dallas’ top 7 players from the 67-win team from two seasons ago remain on this roster. Even last season – in a supposed down year – this group won 51, scored over 100 points per game, played sound-enough defense to finish fourth in the NBA in FG-against percentage, were not turnover-prone, were a near-dominant rebounding team and endured a huge trade and a Dirk injury to finish seventh in the toughest sports conference in the history of ever...And they suddenly suck?
Reason 3 – Redemption/motivation for Howard and Kidd. Kidd's playing for his final contract. Howard is playing for character redemption, for a return to All Star status, and for his next contract in 2 years. Add in Dirk’s motivation and a new coach tailoring the offense to the players he has.
That’s 3 motivated top guys with a brand new system and opponents not sitting on plays. The toughest thing in pro sports to stop is having 3 top players (1 who is a top 5-10 player in the game) playing motivated and with chips on their shoulders.
- Write off the Mavericks at your own peril. This team is not as old, not as far off from the top of the West, and not as left behind in the dust as everyone thinks. And remember how this team plays when the bulls-eye is not on them.
Pick -Dallas -4
Saturday
Wisconsin at Michigan State (-4.5) - ESPN - 11:00 am
Wisconsin has to be one of the most disappointing teams in the nation this year. Tons of hope early in the season and a high ranking have given way to a losing record in the Big 10 and a lost season. Michigan State has an offense that can score on most of the teams in America. They're at home, they're fresh off a great win in the Big House, and Wisconsin sucks.
DOUBLE PLAY - Michigan State -4.5
Northwestern at Minnesota (-6.5) - ESPN2 - 11:00 am
One of the best stories of the year has been lost in the headlines this year. Perennial doormats Minnesota and Northwestern are sitting at 7-1 and 6-2, respectively. Minnesota even has a 3-1 conference record and a #17 ranking. Northwestern just lost to a bad Indiana team. Minnesota went on the road and dominated Purdue. I take the team with more momentum.
Pick - Minnesota -6.5
Michigan at Purdue (-2) - Big 10 Network - 11:00 am
2 bad teams. Just take the home team.
Pick - Purdue -2
Kansas State at Kansas (-10.5) - FSNSW - 11:30 am
Kansas State is pretty bad. They put up a lot of points, but can't stop anyone. Kansas, as I expected, is not enjoying the success they had last year. They're still a good team, even though Texas Tech scored on 20 straight possessions on them. My hate for Kansas State is not enough to think they'll score enough points to hang with Kansas. Kansas needs a good bounceback game at home.
Pick - Kansas -10.5
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame (-4.5) - NBC - 1:30 pm
2 teams I hate the most, Pitt and Notre Dame, have actually put together good seasons. Notre Dame is 5-2 (4-0 at home), and Pitt is 5-2 with a win at South Florida on their resume. This should actually be a decent game. Given that Pitt can beat South Florida on the road, I believe they can beat Notre Dame.
Pick - Pitt +4.5
Iowa State at Oklahoma State (-31) - ABC - 2:30 pm
Oklahoma State proved a ton to me last weekend in Austin. Without some sketchy playcalling late, they probably would have won that game. I'm still convinced that is the 2nd best team in the Big 12, with them not being far behind Texas. They have athletes at every position, can actually line up in an I-formation and pound the rock. They are the most balanced, explosive offense in the league. I trust Oklahoma State in a championship game over any other Big 12 team just because they have athletes on both sides of the ball, and can run the ball on anyone. Great teams in title games can shut down passing games. Oklahoma State can ram you. They annihilate Iowa State.
Pick - Oklahoma State -31
Georgia at Florida (-5.5) - CBS - 2:30
Florida looks like they are rounding into form. Ever since their shocking defeat to Ole Miss, they have beaten Arkansas by 31, LSU by 30, and Kentucky by 58. Wow. I'm still not a believer in Georgia. Their offense is not tailored to use their abundance of talent at the skill positions. Their offensive line sucks. And they just don't play well in big games. Give me Florida to continue to roll to the SEC Title game.
DOUBLE PLAY - Florida -5.5
Iowa at Illinois (-2.5) - ESPN - 2:30 pm
Iowa sucks, Illinois is average. But they have more athletes than Iowa, have an explosive quarterback, and are at home. Give me Illinois.
Pick - Illinois -2.5
Clemson at Boston College (-6.5) - ESPNU - 2:30 pm
Clemson is awful. Boston College is good enough to cover a touchdown at home against a team as bad as Clemson. They beat a good Virginia Tech team at home, so taking care of Clemson shouldn't be a problem.
DOUBLE PLAY - Boston College -6.5
BYU (-14.5) at Colorado State - ESPN2 - 5:00 pm
Colorado State historically has been a good home play for me. And I had my eyes opened on BYU a few weeks ago when they got mauled by TCU. I know nothing else but those 2 facts, so I'm going with CSU to keep it close at home.
Pick - Colorado State +14.5
Tennessee at South Carolina (-6) - ESPN2 - 6:00 pm
My rationale for taking South Carolina is simple. Tennessee sucks, their coach is going to get fired, Steve Spurrier owns Phil Fulmer, and it's at South Carolina. Those bullet points are all you need to know.
Pick - South Carolina -6
Texas (-4) at Texas Tech - ABC - 7:00 pm
To Texas, there have been bigger games and more meaningful ones. But to Tech, this is the biggest game of the school's history. Never mind that they have to play Oklahoma and Oklahoma State after this weekend. Everyone forgets about that. As bad as Texas's murderer's row was for the past 4 weeks, they're done after this Saturday. Win, and they can coast into the Big 12 title game. Texas Tech's murderer's row is just beginning.
So whether Tech win this weekend or not really means nothing to me, I think one of the Oklahoma schools takes care of them. And I think this Texas team has that undeniable "it" factor. I've been harping on them all year, and they have beaten Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State. Why would they stop at Texas Tech? The train chugs on down in Austin.
Pick - Texas -4
Nebraska at Oklahoma (-22) - ESPN - 7:00 pm
Probably the game I've been looking forward to all year. Never mind that Nebraska could get their brains beat in. Never mind that they're severely outmatched. Never mind that they're 22 point underdogs. All I care about is what this matchup means to me and how I was raised on this matchup. This game has conjured up all kinds of heritage, roots, and historic memories for me this week. It's been fun remembering just how important this game used to be and all the memories that go with the game. For nostalgic sake, I'd love a close game. But the realist in me says Oklahoma-44, Nebraska-17. And it's a double play unfortunately.
DOUBLE PLAY - OKLAHOMA -22
TCU (-14) at UNLV - CBSSC - 7:00 pm
I think TCU is the strongest of the non-BCS teams out there. They just had the misfortune of scheduling Oklahoma and getting a loss on their record. UNLV actually hasn't been as bad their record indicates. They have been in most every game they've played, and have barely lost to Air Force, BYU, Colorado State and have wins over Arizona State and Iowa State (2 BCS conference schools). I think they're due for a tight win in conference. As much as I love TCU, I think UNLV plays them close and has a chance to win in the 4th quarter.
Pick - UNLV +14
Utah (-7.5) at New Mexico - Mtn Network - 8:30 pm
New Mexico is not a bad team. Utah is overrated. New Mexico has a good running back who can control the clock. They will play Utah tough. They may even win this game.
Pick - New Mexico +7.5
Crown Game
Arizona State at Oregon State (-14.5) - FSNSW - 9:15 pm
This has to win the prize for biggest line movement in a week's time. What started out as a 9 point favorite has ballooned into 14.5 points, and we're only to Thursday. Look for at least another 1 or 2 points movement by kickoff. Arizona State is awful. Oregon State is talented and at home. They have a running game that should keep ASU's offense on the sideline. A very good crown game here, hopefully there's lots of fog, rain, and a rowdy crowd.
Pick - Oregon State -14.5
