Against the spread results:
Last Week - 14-6
Year to Date - 14-6
Thursday
South Carolina (-10) at Vanderbilt - ESPN - 7:30 pm
South Carolina dismantled a terrible NC State team last Thursday. I put absolutely no stock in that rout. NC State is a bottom feeder in the worst major conference in the nation. Vandy has a very good QB in Chris Nickson who can run and pass. South Carolina is the better team, but I don't trust their offense to beat a conference team by 10 on the road.
Pick - Vanderbilt +10
Washington at New York (-4) - NBC - 6:00 pm
Don't know much here. I do know that Washington is going to some West Coast attack dependent on quick reads, lots of guys in patterns, and minimal pass protection. The polar opposite of the Joe Gibb's attack used last year. With Jason Campbell at QB. New York eats him alive.
Pick - New York -4
Friday
Navy at Ball State (-7) - ESPN - 6:00 pm
Ball State has a bad ass QB who I remember going into Lincoln last year and absolutely ripping apart Nebraska. Now Nebraska had the worst defense in Division 1-A, but still, they are a major program. Navy has a great ground game that gave Ball State fits last year, but BSU's offense is just too good, and they're at home.
Pick - Ball State -7
Saturday
Ohio at Ohio State (-34) - ESPN - 11:00 am
Solich's boys go into the Horseshoe and should get slaughtered. They only rushed for 39 yards against Wyoming last weekend. Ouch. Ohio State always takes care of mid-level teams early in the year.
Pick - Ohio State -34
Miami (Ohio) at Michigan (-14.5) - ESPN2 - 11:00 am
Michigan only a 14.5 point favorite to a team that lost by 21 to Vanderbilt (a below average to average SEC team) at home last weekend. Wow. Michigan has to cover. They just have to.
Pick - Michigan -14.5
Marshall at Wisconsin (-20.5) - Big Ten - 11:00 am
Wisconsin is always a tough team to take when they're playing someone inferior. They almost always play down to the level of the other team, and either barely cover a 20 point spread, or barely even win the game. Blowouts are not this team's forte.
Pick - Marshall +20.5
BYU (-10) at Washington - FSNSW - 2:00 pm
BYU is one of the non-BCS teams vying for an undefeated season and spot in a big bowl. They have a top 5 passing game and a really good QB, Max Hall. Washington looked pretty bad last weekend at Oregon, but Oregon has a kick ass defense and a tough stadium to play in. Washington back at home, with 10 points, with a potentially injured (questionable) Max Hall for BYU. I take points and the home team.
Pick - Washington +10
Cincinnati at Oklahoma (-21.5) - ABC - 2:30 pm
Tough line to pick. Oklahoma looks like they have it all, speed on both sides of the ball, speed at skill positions, and always superior coaching (at least in the regular season). Cincinnati usually puts up a ton of points, but Oklahoma is not an average team, they are top 5-worthy and at home.
Pick - Oklahoma -21.5
San Diego State at Notre Dame (-22) - NBC - 2:30 pm
If this was last year, I'd take SDSU, as bad as they are. But Notre Dame should be improved this year, and will take care of one of the weakest D-1 schools in the nation. SDSU lost to Cal-Poly last week.
Pick - Notre Dame -22
Oregon State at Penn State (-16.5) - ESPN2 - 2:30 pm
A team that can't win at Stanford probably also can't win on the road 3 time zones away and playing against a much better team. Penn State should rise up in the Big 10 and contend for 2nd place.
Pick - Penn State -16.5
West Virginia (-8) at East Carolina - ESPN - 3:30 pm
Another game I'm torn on. ECU has held Pat White in check in the past, but at the same time, I smell a let-down for them a week after an emotional upset of Virginia Tech. West Virginia seems to be pretty motivated and in "screw you" mode after Rich Rodriguez left for Michigan. I see the betting public jumping on the ECU bandwagon, and I see WVU going into ECU and winning by 2 TD's.
Pick - West Virginia -8
Texas A&M (-3) at New Mexico - VS - 4:00 pm
Is A&M really that bad? New Mexico looked bad as well, losing handily to TCU last weekend. TCU, however, is a perennial 10 win team in a semi-major conference. Give me the home team with points.
Pick - New Mexico +3
South Florida (-14) at Central Florida - ESPN2 - 6:00 pm
Kevin Smith is no longer the RB at Central Florida, and South Florida returns everyone. Central Florida has no one on offense to break that stout SFU defense. This could get ugly.
Pick - South Florida -14
Lousiana Tech at Kansas (-20.5) - FSNSW - 6:00 pm
Kansas will take a step back this year. The schedule and lost talent will catch up with them. Louisiana Tech seems like they can always give a major team a game, year after year. Kansas wins, but not by 21.
Pick - Louisiana Tech +20.5
Miami at Florida (-21.5) - ESPN - 7:00 pm
Florida could have the best team in the land. They have 2 Heisman contenders at 2 skill positions, have the best coach in the SEC, and have a really good defense. Miami still sucks.
Pick - Florida -21.5
CROWN GAME
Texas (-26.5) at UTEP - FSNSW - 9:15 pm
Texas makes a rare appearance in the Crown Game. The Sun Bowl will be sold out, but 60% of the crowd will be pro-Texas. UTEP is not very good, and Texas has a great offensive line and a new nasty demeanor on defense that should help them handle road games better this year.
Pick - Texas -26.5
