Thursday, October 30, 2008

Weekend TV Preview

- After 2 weeks off licking my wounds, I'm back up on the horse and ready to ride hard and strong to the finish line. Ready to right this ship and get myself back over .500. Here we go.

YTD - 71-80-4


Michigan State -4.5
Florida -5.5
Boston College -6.5
Oklahoma -22


South Florida (-2.5) at Cincinnati - ESPN - 6:30 pm

South Florida comes in with 2 losses, both in conference, to Pitt at home and to Louisville on the road. South Florida is a really good team, with tons of athletes, an above average quarterback, a difference maker on the defensive line. And Cincinnati has been very average all year. Give me the athletes over a mediocre team.
Pick - South Florida -2.5

Dallas (-4) vs. Houston - TNT - 7:00 pm

One team comes into a new NBA season with hefty expectations, one team comes in with absolutely none. Houston, everyone's preseason darlings ever since Yao and McGrady joined forces, now have media types really creaming over themselves now that Ron Artest is on board. Like I say every year about Houston, I'll believe it when I see it.

At the same rate, the Mavericks are being severely underrated and overlooked. Which is completely fine with me. I see a better than expected, motivated, flying under the radar Mavs team this year.

One of my favorite websites,, has tons of great points as to why this season will be a pleasant surprise to most media idiots out there.

Reason 1 - Dirk Nowitzki shows no sign of decline. In fact, The UberMan may still be on the incline. In that first-round Hornets series, Dirk averaged 26.8 points, 12 rebounds and four assists per game. He was, indeed, better than he’d been in the regular season. Those numbers are better than any collection of numbers he’s ever had over the course of a regular season. With a bum leg.

Reason 2 - They were 6 games out of 1st place. And how terrible were they late in games after Kidd trade? Very awful. I say that was a combo of a new point guard and a handcuffing coach who had that team overthinking and acting like puppets. And teams sitting on Avery’s plays. That gets fixed this year.

6 out of Dallas’ top 7 players from the 67-win team from two seasons ago remain on this roster. Even last season – in a supposed down year – this group won 51, scored over 100 points per game, played sound-enough defense to finish fourth in the NBA in FG-against percentage, were not turnover-prone, were a near-dominant rebounding team and endured a huge trade and a Dirk injury to finish seventh in the toughest sports conference in the history of ever...And they suddenly suck?

Reason 3 – Redemption/motivation for Howard and Kidd. Kidd's playing for his final contract. Howard is playing for character redemption, for a return to All Star status, and for his next contract in 2 years. Add in Dirk’s motivation and a new coach tailoring the offense to the players he has.

That’s 3 motivated top guys with a brand new system and opponents not sitting on plays. The toughest thing in pro sports to stop is having 3 top players (1 who is a top 5-10 player in the game) playing motivated and with chips on their shoulders.

- Write off the Mavericks at your own peril. This team is not as old, not as far off from the top of the West, and not as left behind in the dust as everyone thinks. And remember how this team plays when the bulls-eye is not on them.

Pick -Dallas -4


Wisconsin at Michigan State (-4.5) - ESPN - 11:00 am
Wisconsin has to be one of the most disappointing teams in the nation this year. Tons of hope early in the season and a high ranking have given way to a losing record in the Big 10 and a lost season. Michigan State has an offense that can score on most of the teams in America. They're at home, they're fresh off a great win in the Big House, and Wisconsin sucks.
DOUBLE PLAY - Michigan State -4.5

Northwestern at Minnesota (-6.5) - ESPN2 - 11:00 am

One of the best stories of the year has been lost in the headlines this year. Perennial doormats Minnesota and Northwestern are sitting at 7-1 and 6-2, respectively. Minnesota even has a 3-1 conference record and a #17 ranking. Northwestern just lost to a bad Indiana team. Minnesota went on the road and dominated Purdue. I take the team with more momentum.
Pick - Minnesota -6.5

Michigan at Purdue (-2) - Big 10 Network - 11:00 am

2 bad teams. Just take the home team.
Pick - Purdue -2

Kansas State at Kansas (-10.5) - FSNSW - 11:30 am

Kansas State is pretty bad. They put up a lot of points, but can't stop anyone. Kansas, as I expected, is not enjoying the success they had last year. They're still a good team, even though Texas Tech scored on 20 straight possessions on them. My hate for Kansas State is not enough to think they'll score enough points to hang with Kansas. Kansas needs a good bounceback game at home.
Pick - Kansas -10.5

Pittsburgh at Notre Dame (-4.5) - NBC - 1:30 pm

2 teams I hate the most, Pitt and Notre Dame, have actually put together good seasons. Notre Dame is 5-2 (4-0 at home), and Pitt is 5-2 with a win at South Florida on their resume. This should actually be a decent game. Given that Pitt can beat South Florida on the road, I believe they can beat Notre Dame.
Pick - Pitt +4.5

Iowa State at Oklahoma State (-31) - ABC - 2:30 pm

Oklahoma State proved a ton to me last weekend in Austin. Without some sketchy playcalling late, they probably would have won that game. I'm still convinced that is the 2nd best team in the Big 12, with them not being far behind Texas. They have athletes at every position, can actually line up in an I-formation and pound the rock. They are the most balanced, explosive offense in the league. I trust Oklahoma State in a championship game over any other Big 12 team just because they have athletes on both sides of the ball, and can run the ball on anyone. Great teams in title games can shut down passing games. Oklahoma State can ram you. They annihilate Iowa State.
Pick - Oklahoma State -31

Georgia at Florida (-5.5) - CBS - 2:30

Florida looks like they are rounding into form. Ever since their shocking defeat to Ole Miss, they have beaten Arkansas by 31, LSU by 30, and Kentucky by 58. Wow. I'm still not a believer in Georgia. Their offense is not tailored to use their abundance of talent at the skill positions. Their offensive line sucks. And they just don't play well in big games. Give me Florida to continue to roll to the SEC Title game.
DOUBLE PLAY - Florida -5.5

Iowa at Illinois (-2.5) - ESPN - 2:30 pm

Iowa sucks, Illinois is average. But they have more athletes than Iowa, have an explosive quarterback, and are at home. Give me Illinois.
Pick - Illinois -2.5

Clemson at Boston College (-6.5) - ESPNU - 2:30 pm

Clemson is awful. Boston College is good enough to cover a touchdown at home against a team as bad as Clemson. They beat a good Virginia Tech team at home, so taking care of Clemson shouldn't be a problem.
DOUBLE PLAY - Boston College -6.5

BYU (-14.5) at Colorado State - ESPN2 - 5:00 pm

Colorado State historically has been a good home play for me. And I had my eyes opened on BYU a few weeks ago when they got mauled by TCU. I know nothing else but those 2 facts, so I'm going with CSU to keep it close at home.
Pick - Colorado State +14.5

Tennessee at South Carolina (-6) - ESPN2 - 6:00 pm

My rationale for taking South Carolina is simple. Tennessee sucks, their coach is going to get fired, Steve Spurrier owns Phil Fulmer, and it's at South Carolina. Those bullet points are all you need to know.
Pick - South Carolina -6

Texas (-4) at Texas Tech - ABC - 7:00 pm

To Texas, there have been bigger games and more meaningful ones. But to Tech, this is the biggest game of the school's history. Never mind that they have to play Oklahoma and Oklahoma State after this weekend. Everyone forgets about that. As bad as Texas's murderer's row was for the past 4 weeks, they're done after this Saturday. Win, and they can coast into the Big 12 title game. Texas Tech's murderer's row is just beginning.

So whether Tech win this weekend or not really means nothing to me, I think one of the Oklahoma schools takes care of them. And I think this Texas team has that undeniable "it" factor. I've been harping on them all year, and they have beaten Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State. Why would they stop at Texas Tech? The train chugs on down in Austin.
Pick - Texas -4

Nebraska at Oklahoma (-22) - ESPN - 7:00 pm

Probably the game I've been looking forward to all year. Never mind that Nebraska could get their brains beat in. Never mind that they're severely outmatched. Never mind that they're 22 point underdogs. All I care about is what this matchup means to me and how I was raised on this matchup. This game has conjured up all kinds of heritage, roots, and historic memories for me this week. It's been fun remembering just how important this game used to be and all the memories that go with the game. For nostalgic sake, I'd love a close game. But the realist in me says Oklahoma-44, Nebraska-17. And it's a double play unfortunately.

TCU (-14) at UNLV - CBSSC - 7:00 pm

I think TCU is the strongest of the non-BCS teams out there. They just had the misfortune of scheduling Oklahoma and getting a loss on their record. UNLV actually hasn't been as bad their record indicates. They have been in most every game they've played, and have barely lost to Air Force, BYU, Colorado State and have wins over Arizona State and Iowa State (2 BCS conference schools). I think they're due for a tight win in conference. As much as I love TCU, I think UNLV plays them close and has a chance to win in the 4th quarter.
Pick - UNLV +14

Utah (-7.5) at New Mexico - Mtn Network - 8:30 pm

New Mexico is not a bad team. Utah is overrated. New Mexico has a good running back who can control the clock. They will play Utah tough. They may even win this game.
Pick - New Mexico +7.5

Crown Game

Arizona State at Oregon State (-14.5) - FSNSW - 9:15 pm

This has to win the prize for biggest line movement in a week's time. What started out as a 9 point favorite has ballooned into 14.5 points, and we're only to Thursday. Look for at least another 1 or 2 points movement by kickoff. Arizona State is awful. Oregon State is talented and at home. They have a running game that should keep ASU's offense on the sideline. A very good crown game here, hopefully there's lots of fog, rain, and a rowdy crowd.
Pick - Oregon State -14.5

Saturday, October 18, 2008

- Not much time for write-ups, just take these double plays.....

Louisiana-Monroe -18
Oklahoma State -18
Arizona +2.5
Tulsa -18
Troy -10
Iowa State +8

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Weekend TV Preview

- An absolutely miserable picking weekend for me. Confidence is at a season low, need a big one this weekend....

Last week - 7-17-1
YTD - 65-74-4


BYU at TCU (1.5) - Versus - 7:00 pm

I'm really not sure how TCU is favored in this. I know they're at home, but it's not like Amon Carter Stadium is The Swamp. They have a backup QB playing. They played like crap in their game a week ago, against a bad Colorado State team. BYU has a passing offense that can score on just about anyone. They've been way more impressive in their games than TCU. TCU has also lost its last 7 Thursday night ESPN games. Give me the more talented team.
Pick - BYU +1.5

Florida State (-10.5) at NC State - ESPN - 6:45 pm

2 teams that are really bad. This should be an ugly, offensively-challenged, horrible game to watch. I don't plan on tuning in. There's nothing in this game to get me to watch it.
Pick - NC State +10.5


Hawaii at Boise State (-24.5) - ESPN - 7:00 pm

Boise is another good non-BCS team. Hawaii hasn't looked bad in the past few weeks, covering spreads and giving more talented teams problems. That ends this week. Boise employs a power running game that will beat Hawaii into submission. Add in a decent play-action passing game led by freshman Kellen Moore, and this will be another blowout for Boise.
Pick - Boise State -24.5

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Weekend TV Preview

- A below average picking performance last weekend was saved by my double and triple plays. Somehow I managed to finish 3 games up for the weekend.

Last week - 16-13-1
YTD - 58-57-3

- West Virginia -24
- Miami -17
- Oregon -17.5

- Texas Tech -20.5


Clemson at Wake Forest (-2.5) - ESPN - 6:30 pm

Wake Forest is a very good team, and I'm not sure what the hell happened against Navy. I like their coach too much to expect them to come out flat again, especially against a conference rival. Clemson is just too inconsistent and too overrated for me to trust them on the road.
Pick - Wake Forest -2.5

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies (-135) - FOX - 7:22 pm

I'm going with reverse psychology on this one. I hate the city of Philadelphia and all the pukes who live there. The crowd is fun to watch, they're one of the best in the league. But my favorite thing to watch is Philly fans getting suckerpunched by defeat. They have never won anything as a city, and they have a stepchild complex with NYC and Boston. I'm picking the home team on this one, but I want the Dodgers to win. So I win either way.
Pick - Philadelphia -135


Louisville (-6.5) at Memphis - ESPN - 7:00 pm

These are 2 pretty bad teams. I really don't know much, I've only seen Louisville a few times this year, and they haven't impressed me much. Memphis sucks as well, but they're at home and getting almost a touchdown. Louisville is not good enough to cover a TD on the road against anyone.
Pick - Memphis +6.5

Boston at Tampa Bay (-105) - TBS - 7:37 pm

This will be a very intense series, these teams hate each other. It will also be a very home team-intensive series. Tampa and Boston will both take care of business at home, with Tampa winning a Game 7 in the Tropicana Toilet. Tampa takes Game 1.
Pick - Tampa Bay -105


Oklahoma (-7) at Texas - ABC - 11:00 am

The game of the day is being played during hangover hours. Lots of red eyes will be watching this one. A hard one to pick with the spread, but easy to pick straight up.

Why Oklahoma wins:
1) An offense that has yet to give in to a pass rush, allowing Sam Bradford to pick defenses apart at a historic rate.
2) Texas gets mind F'ed by Oklahoma. That is bigger than talent levels in most years when these 2 teams meet. Oklahoma has a mindset of taking no bullshat from anyone that is cultivated from their coach. Texas has a soft mentality cultivated from their preacher coach.
3) Defense is fast as hell, and Texas doesn't have a run game outside of Colt McCoy. Oklahoma will shut him down and force Texas's RB's to produce.
4) Bradford, given he gets protection (see #1), will absolutely pick apart a young, no-name secondary.

Why Texas wins:
1) Colt McCoy grows his legend and plays out of his mind. He keeps his running and throwing freak show going, and doesn't let the fact that they don't have a star running back affect outcome of the game.
2) Texas could have the best offensive line in the nation, allowing McCoy time to run and throw effectively.
3) Will Muschamp devising a way to get pressure on Bradford. Bradford is only as good as his offensive line allows him to be. He can't run, he can't avoid the rush, and he's not a scrambler. Get pressure on him, and the Oklahoma offense suddenly becomes average.
4) Special teams. Texas blocks kicks at an historic rate. As an underdog, they may need one of these.

That said, Oklahoma's pros outweigh Texas's pro's. I just can't see Texas getting enough pressure on Bradford, and I'll take Stoops over Mack any day of the week. As long as VY isn't playing.

Pick - Oklahoma -7

Minnesota at Illinois (-12.5) - ESPN - 11:00 am
As long as the Juice is playing well, Illinois can hang with anyone. Ron Zook may be a terrible coach, but he has brought athletes to Illinois. Minnesota doesn't have a very good defense, allowing some lower level teams to get into the upper 20's and 30's on them. Juice Williams is hot right now, throwing for 310 and 2 TD's, and running for 120 and 2 TD's last week at Michigan. He comes home and rolls over Minnesota.
Pick - Illinois -12.5

Syracuse at West Virginia (-24) - ESPNU - 11:00 am

Syracuse is awful. West Virginia is average, but at home, against a terrible Syracuse team, they roll to 50 points.
DOUBLE PLAY - West Virginia -24

Toledo at Michigan (-16) - Big 10 Network - 11:00 am

Michigan got rolled up on at home last week to Illinois, quickly bringing people back to earth after the Wisconsin upset. Toledo doesn't have much, they almost beat Fresno at home, but that didn't prove to be very impressive after Fresno lost to Hawaii at home last week. So I'm not sure what to think. I guess give me Michigan.
Pick - Michigan -16

Colorado at Kansas (-14) - ESPN2 - 11:30 am

Kansas needed a historical comeback last week in Ames. They struggled against a mobile, dual threat QB. Cody Hawkins is mobile, but he doesn't present the same problems that the ISU QB did. Colorado is terrible on defense, and terrible on the road. Kansas comes home and plays a solid game after last week's scare.
Pick - Kansas -14

Nebraska at Texas Tech (-20.5) - FSNSW - 2:00 pm

While Bo sifts through the Callahan mess and attempts to field a competitive team this year, I will take advantage and do Triple Plays against all ranked teams they play this year. It is really a miserable time in Lincoln. 40+ years spent building the most consistently dominant team in college football was wrecked in 4 years by an NFL con-man. It's truly depressing.

Arizona State at USC (-27.5) - ABC - 2:30 pm

Arizona State is pretty bad. Rudy Carpenter is banged up, they can't run the ball, they can't protect the QB, and their defense is awful. After yet another early season shocking loss, USC is going to roll through the rest of their schedule and be there at the end. They don't deserve anything more than a Rose Bowl bid, but they more than likley will roll through the schedule and have 1 loss.
Pick - USC -27.5

Tennessee at Georgia (-12) - CBS - 2:30 pm

Georgia is quickly buckling under inflated expectations. Tennessee is terrible all around. I just don't trust either team. I don't trust Georgia to blow anyone out. And I don't trust Tennessee to keep it close on the road. I'm conflicted. Give me the points I guess.
Pick - Tennessee +12

Purdue at Ohio State (-19) - ESPN - 2:30 pm

Purdue is pretty bad against the run, and has disappointed me on offense. Chris Wells is healthy and Tyrelle Pryor is firmly entrenched as the QB. They will begin to roll through teams in the Big 10.
Pick - Ohio State -19

Michigan State (-1.5) at Northwestern - ESPN2 - 2:30 pm

Another tough game to pick. Northwestern is 5-0, with Iowa being their best win. Michigan State has won 5 in a row after a season opening loss at Cal. In this case, I'd lean towards the team I think has more talent (MSU), and against a potential fluke team with a history of being average (NW).
Pick - Michigan State -1.5

TCU (-15) at Colorado State - CBSCS - 2:30 pm

TCU is a really good team. They do just about everything well. But Colorado State is very tough at home, and I have to take them with 15 points. TCU definitely wins, but 15 points on the road is just too much against a team that's 3-0 at home this year.
Pick - Colorado State +15

Central Florida at Miami (-17) - ESPNU - 2:45 pm

Miami actually looked decent on offense last week. UCF is pretty bad, one of the worst teams in the nation. Miami uses that offensive momentum to roll UCF this week. Too many athletes.
DOUBLE PLAY - Miami -17

Iowa State at Baylor (-4.5) - FCS - 6:00 pm

Baylor has a great coach in Art Briles who will get that program to heights it has never seen. They have a great QB in Robert Griffin who will be a major selling point to potential recruits for the next 3 years. I fully expect Baylor to pass Texas A&M in the next couple years. This will be a very entertaining game with 2 very good, young dual threat QB's. Give me the home team.
Pick - Baylor -4.5

LSU at Florida (-6) - CBS - 7:00 pm

If Texas-Oklahoma wasn't being played, this would be the no doubt game of the day. I'm not sure why Florida is laying 6 points in this one. LSU proved it could go on the road and beat Auburn. Say what you want about Auburn and their offense, but they're a top 25 team, with speed on both sides of the ball, and a bear to beat at home. LSU's defense is more than capable of defending Florida's disappointing offense. I'm not sure if LSU wins outright, but they cover 6 points.
Pick - LSU +6

Penn State (-5.5) at Wisconsin - ESPN - 7:00 pm

I have 2 things going for this pick. Wisconsin is bound to win a game after melting down 2 weeks in a row to Michigan and Ohio State. Penn State is not a top 10 team, and is just due for a loss. I have to take a ready to win Wisconsin team at home, at night, against a potentially overrated Penn State team.
Pick - Wisconsin +5.5

Oklahoma State at Missouri (-14) - ESPN2 - 7:00 pm

Not the biggest game of the day, but potentially the most exciting. Both offenses live in the 50's, with both scoring 50+ in 4 of their 5 games. Missouri has yet to be held to a 3 and out on offense. Both defenses suck, so the possibility of a blowout on either side is unlikely. Last team with the ball wins.
Pick - Oklahoma State +14


UCLA at Oregon (-17.5) - FSNSW - 10:00 pm

A very late Crown Game, even by Crown Game standards. This will be a nice nightcap. Expect tons of offense for Oregon, and expect to enjoy watching Rick Neuheisel look very feminine on the sideline. Oregon rolls.
DOUBLE PLAY - Oregon -17.5

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Weekend TV Preview

- Another bad week last week, but I'm feeling a 75% weekend here.....A few Double Plays this weekend.

Last Week - 8-11
YTD - 42-44-2


- South Florida -13.5
- Texas Tech -7.5
- Central Florida -13.5
- TCU -24.5
- Oregon +16.5


- Missouri -10.5


Pittsburgh at South Florida (-13.5) - ESPN - 6:30 pm

As has been written in this space in the past, I hate Pittsburgh. It's well chronicled. South Florida is everything that Pittsburgh isn't. Athletic, fast on offense and defense, have a competent QB, and a great homefield advantage. This game won't even be close. South Florida is going to sneak up on voters this year. Everyone else in the country is going to cannabalize each other, and South Florida is going to roll through their schedule with no problem. Check their schedule sometime.
DOUBLE PLAY - South Florida -13.5

Oregon State at Utah (-11.5) - Versus - 8:00 pm

Oregon State woke up last week. I had them as my sleeper pick in the PAC-10 before the season started, and they let me down until they knocked out USC. Utah should have lost to Air Force, and is a decent team, but not BCS-worthy like everyone thinks. Of the non-BCS teams that could contend for a BCS bowl (BYU, Utah, Boise State, and TCU), Utah looks to be the weakest. I'll take the 11.5 points and bet on the PAC-10 finally showing some nuts against the Mountain West.
Pick - Oregon State +11.5


Cincinnati (-3.5) at Marshall - ESPN - 7:00 pm

I like Cincinnati a lot. I think Brian Kelly is a great coach, and probably will be at a major program within 2-3 years. I know nothing else about this game. Take Cincinnati.
Pick - Cincinnati -3.5


Penn State (-13) at Purdue - ESPN - 11:00 am

Purdue somehow lost by 14 to Notre Dame last week. I guess I overrated Purdue's offense, didn't expect them to only score 21 against a pitiful Notre Dame team. I'm not a huge believer in Penn State. Not convinced that they've played anyone of substance, I don't count an overrated Illinois team. I can see Purdue rising up at home and scoring some points, and keeping it within 2 touchdowns.
Pick - Purdue +13

Iowa at Michigan State (-7.5) - ESPN2 - 11:00 am

Michigan State is not a bad team. They lost a tough game out in California in week 1 and have been unbeaten ever since. They have a stud at RB in Javon Ringer. Iowa is pretty bad, losing to Northwestern, barely beating Iowa State, and losing to Pittsburgh. Michigan State rolls them.
Pick - Michigan State -7.5

Duke at Georgia Tech (-14) - ESPNU - 11:00 am

How Duke is 3-1 is beyond me. I don't care who they've played, to be 3-1 after 4 games is a huge accomplishment for the worst football program in America. Georgia Tech is a good team, and I love their triple option running attack. Duke can't keep up with this team. Georgia Tech should have beaten Virginia Tech and should be undefeated right now. They routed Mississippi State, who only lost to LSU by 10 pts. And also went on the road and beat Boston College, which is always a tough thing to do. They take care of Duke big at home.
Pick - Georgia Tech -14

Indiana at Minnesota (-7) - Big 10 Network - 11:00 am

The parade of Big 10 games continues. Minnesota played Ohio State tough last week, although I'm not sure how pumped Ohio State was for the game. But they still played them within 13 points on the road. Indiana has had some wind let out of their sail these past 2 weeks with losses at home to Ball State and Michigan State, but I still think they're a better team than Minnesota. They bounce back this week with a close game against Minnesota.
Pick - Indiana +7

Oklahoma (-26.5) at Baylor - FSNSW - 11:30 am

This could be the smallest line that has been set in this series in a while. Baylor, while never playing Oklahoma close enough to scare them, (outside of a 37-30 loss in 2005) never really gets hammered at the same time. With athleticism at QB and a great offensive mind in Art Briles, I can see them covering this spread at home.
Pick - Baylor +26.5

Kansas (-12.5) at Iowa State - Versus - 11:30 am

Iowa State is terrible. Kansas is a good team, on the 2nd level of Big 12 contenders. Covering 12.5 points against a bad team like Iowa State should be no big deal.
Pick - Kansas -12.5

Stanford at Notre Dame (-7) - NBC - 2:30 pm

I just can't do it. I can't take Notre Dame at any point this year, if ever. If San Diego State can almost beat Notre Dame at home, Stanford surely can keep it close.
Pick - Stanford +7

Texas Tech (-7.5) at Kansas State - ABC - 2:30 pm

Texas Tech is just waiting to blow someone out of the water. I watched the Kansas State-Lousiville game and couldn't figure out what the love affair with Josh Freeman is. That guy gets so much hype for having such a bag of nothing. He looked terrible. Kansas State lost to a mediocre Louisville team, and Texas Tech is a legit Top 10 team this year. They beat Kansas State big.
DOUBLE PLAY - Texas Tech -7.5

Kentucky at Alabama (-16.5) - CBS - 2:30 pm

I'm still not hopping on the bandwagon. Alabama is good, but they're not championship worthy. John Parker Wilson is possibly the worst 4 year starting QB of all time. I could walk into any High School in the DFW area and find dudes with stronger arms than him. Yes they beat Georgia, but how good is Georgia?? They look to be nothing more than a product of preseason media hype, with no substance behind them. I still hold true to my statement from last week, "Alabama will lose 4 games this year." I'll stand by that. Kentucky has a good defense and will keep this close, as most Alabama games are played within 10 points anyway.
Pick - Kentucky +16.5

Illinois at Michigan (-2.5) - ESPN2 - 2:30 pm

Illinois, while nothing special, has an athletic QB who should give Michigan problems. Michigan played out of their minds in the 4th quarter last week, and have shot their load. Illinois comes in and wins easily.
Pick - Illinois +2.5

SMU at Central Florida (-13.5) - CBSCS - 2:30 pm

There are 2 teams you should bet against every week, SMU and North Texas. And if either of those teams are on the road? Make them Double Plays. SMU is terrible. UCF has a great homefield advantage and too much speed.
DOUBLE PLAY - Central Florida -13.5

Navy at Air Force (-6) - Versus - 3:00 pm

A good, American game right here. Air Force should have beaten Utah. Navy beat Wake Forest. Both are decent teams. I know nothing else, except that I bet it's a close game.
Pick - Navy +6

Auburn (-4) at Vanderbilt - ESPN - 5:00 pm

Vandy is the most surprising 5-0 team in the nation right now. They have a good QB and a good offense overall. They will definitely fall back to being Vanderbilt at some point this year, but I can see them pulling an upset here. Auburn has played 1 road game this year, at Mississippi State, and that was the 3-2 barnburner. With that info, and with how Auburn always plays close games (14-12 last week vs. Tennessee), give me the home team with the points and the momentum of an undefeated season.
Pick - Vanderbilt +4

San Diego State at TCU (-24.5) - MTN - 5:00 pm

TCU is a damn good team. Don't look at last week's result and draw conclusions. Oklahoma is on another level compared with the rest of the nation. TCU plays suffocating defense, has a good enough offense to put up 30 points every week in the Mountain West, and is very well coached. They will take out their frustration on SDSU.

UConn at North Carolina (-7) - ESPN2 - 6:00 pm
North Carolina showed me a ton last weekend, winning on the road with a backup QB playing. They were definitely on my radar before the year, as I picked them as the winner of the ACC. Like last week, I think they show again that the QB injury isn't going to affect them. Butch Davis is too good of a defensive coach to let UConn beat them. That QB for UConn is terrible throwing the ball, seriously looks like a girl shot-putting it. Butch is salivating right now.
Pick - North Carolina -7

Texas (-13.5) at Colorado - FSNSW - 6:00 pm

Texas looks really strong this year. A fast, nasty defense. A QB playing at an historically efficient level. A dominating offensive line. And the luxury of being overlooked and underhyped. Texas has proven they don't play well when the target is on their back. All of that being said, Colorado is a different team at home. They have a history of playing top teams tough at home (see: Oklahoma's loss last year in Boulder). I think they keep it very close, but Colt McCoy will lead UT on a game-winning drive in the 4th quarter.
Pick - Colorado +13.5

Maryland (-13.5) at Virginia - ESPNU - 6:00 pm

Any team that loses 31-3 to Duke I have to bet against on a weekly basis. Virginia is terrible and Maryland isn't great, but they're good enough to beat them by 2 touchdowns.
Pick - Maryland -13.5

Washington at Arizona (-21.5) - Versus - 6:30 pm

Washington is 0-4 somehow. With perhaps the most talented QB in the conference, they've looked pretty bad this year. They've been blown out, they've lost heartbreakers, etc. It's been a terrible year so far for Washington, and the season is only 5 weeks old. It's going to be a long, painful season. Arizona has won big in 3 of their 4 games, with only a strange loss to New Mexico mixed in there. They are not a bad team. But I think Washington is going to put together a good game at some point soon, I believe in Jake Locker too much.
Pick - Washington +21.5

Oregon at USC (-16.5) - ABC - 7:00 pm

Oregon has a great offense, and is really talented, on both sides of the ball. They've only lost at home to a pretty good Boise State team. USC has proven to be very average and methodical on offense, and not as good as I thought they would be on defense. It seems you can run at them and overpower them. Oregon averages 300 yards rushing a game through 5 games and will be able to run on USC and keep it close. Bare-minimum USC lets teams hang around, their offense just doesn't blow anyone out.
DOUBLE PLAY - Oregon +16.5

Rice at Tulsa (-14) - CBSCS - 7:00 pm

This game could be 70-70 late in the 4th, with the last team holding the ball winning. Tulsa averages over 600 yards a game on offense, and Rice just scored 77 points in 3 quarters last weekend. This could be one of the most underratedly exciting games of the weekend.
Pick - Rice +14


Missouri (-10.5) at Nebraska - ESPN - 8:00 pm

Missouri is clicking on all cylinders. Their offense is damn near unstoppable. I see them going undefeated and meeting an undefeated Oklahoma team in the Big 12 Title Game, producing the most exciting Conference Championship game the Big 12 has ever seen. Nebraska severely disappointed me last weekend by laying an egg on offense at home to a mediocre Virginia Tech team. The Nebraska defense also couldn't slow down an average VT offense, and will get absolutely hammered by the best offense in the Big 12. The 30 year winning streak in Lincoln vs. Missouri ends in horrible fashion this week. This is the best bet of the weekend.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Weekend TV Preview

- A mediocre week last week.

Last week - 9-9-1
YTD - 34-33-2


USC (-25.5) at Oregon State - ESPN - 8:00 pm

USC has looked very impressive so far this year. They really do seem to have everything this year, a good QB, a fast and nasty defense, and a ball control, pounding offense that can also spring for some big plays in the passing game. However, there is something I can't really explain about USC. They just don't wow me like some of the other USC teams of the past 5-6 years. Those teams would go on the road in conference and take care of business and cover 20+ point spreads. These post-Leinart and Bush USC teams seem to play down to their opponents when they go on the road. Oregon State is terrible, losing to Stanford and getting blown out by Penn State. However, they have history of playing USC tough in Corvallis. 26 points is just too much.
Pick - Oregon State +25.5


Connecticut at Louisville (-3.5) - ESPN2 - 7:00 pm

Louisville has a great defense and is at home, fresh off a big win against Rutgers. Connecticut is terribly 1-dimensional, yet talented at the same time. But I just couldn't believe how ridiculous that UCONN QB looked when he attempted to throw passes. Louisville is the best in the Big East at stopping the only thing that UCONN does well, running the ball. The UCONN QB is going to be forced to throw the ball, and that won't go well.
Pick - Louisville -3.5


Michigan State (-8) at Indiana - ESPN - 11:00 am

Indiana has a great offense, and mobile QB. They can score points. Michigan State has a great running game, but has not wowed me as a whole this year. I have to take a good offense, at home, against a mediocre team, with 8 points.
Pick - Indiana +8

North Carolina at Miami (-7.5) - ESPN2 - 11:00 am

Up until last week, I had North Carolina as my sleeper to win the weak ACC. Now that their starting QB has been lost for the year, and they are now relying on a freshman, all bets are off. As average as I think Miami is, they still have tons of athletes to harass that new QB, and they have enough skill position speed to cover a TD at home.
Pick - Miami -7.5

Minnesota at Ohio State (-18) - Big 10 Network - 11:00 am

Minnesota is somehow 4-0, beating up on 1-AA and the worst Division 1 programs in the country. Ohio State now has their future in play at the QB position, and I expect gradual improvement every week. Ohio State has too much talent to let a team like Minnesota hang with them at home. Pryor is good for 100 yards rushing, and 3 total TD's in this one.
Pick - Ohio State -18

Army at Texas A&M (-28) - Versus - 11:30 am

Texas A&M is terrible. They're worse off with Mike Sherman than Nebraska was with Bill Callahan. At least Callahan could recruit speed and have a top offense. Sherman is nothing more than an NFL digit-head. Terrible, rushed hire by knucklehead AD Bill Byrne, who's more concerned with the women's rifle team than with building a top-flight football program. Give me Army just out of principle and my hate of the NFL.
Pick - Army +28

Arkansas at Texas (-27.5) - ABC - 2:30 pm

Arkansas is terrible. Barely beating 2 directional schools, and then getting pounded by an average Alabama team (don't believe the hype on Bama) at home. Just an awful team. Texas, as I've stated previously, is flying under the radar compared with other Big 12 teams such as Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. They are really going to surprise some people. Colt McCoy is playing as well as anyone at the QB position. The offensive line is back to 2005 levels. And the defense has a new, nasty approach with Muschamp at the helm. They absolutely kill Arkansas.
Pick - Texas -27.5

Purdue at Notre Dame (-1) - NBC - 2:30 pm

How Notre Dame can be favored against any team is beyond me. Charlie Weis sucks. Notre Dame's offense sucks. The whole program is just crap. Weis touted his "schematic advantage over every team they play" on offense, and they struggle to score TD's against San Diego State. Purdue has too much offense for Notre Dame to keep up.
Pick - Purdue +1

Tennessee at Auburn (-6.5) - CBS - 2:30 pm

Tennessee is in disarray. This program has been spiraling downward ever since 1999, when they won the title. It's been a consistently average program for the past 10 years. I really can't see Fulmer still having a job in December. Auburn has a really good team, a below average offense, and nasty defense. Tennessee got embarassed at home last week to Florida, scoring only 6 points, and that's after getting embarassed by a bottom feeder in the worst conference in the nation (UCLA, Pac-10), and the embarassment will continue. No way Auburn loses 2 in a row at home, not with this good of a team.
Pick - Auburn -6.5

Wisconsin (-6) at Michigan - ESPN - 2:30 pm

Another program that I just love watching squirm and wallow in mediocrity and misery. Michigan just sucks. They'll be good eventually, just because Rich Rodriguez is a good coach and he will eventually get athletes for his offensive system, but right now, the cupboard's bare. Wisconsin has proven it can win on the road against a good team (Fresno State), and they're going against a far inferior team in Michigan.
Pick - Wisconsin -6

Houston at East Carolina (-10.5) - CBSCS - 2:30 pm

Somehow Houston lost to a terrible Colorado State last week. East Carolina somehow lost to an even worse NC State team last week. In situations like this, you have to look at both teams, decide which one's loss was more of a fluke, and bet that they rebound the following week. In this case, no doubt that it's ECU.
Pick - East Carolina -10.5

Navy at Wake Forest (-16) - ESPNU - 2:45 pm

Wake Forest dominated Florida State on the road last week. This is a good team. Well coached, disciplined, and smart. They dominate Navy.
Pick - Wake Forest -16

North Texas at Rice (-17.5) - Ch. 21 - 4:00 pm

Poor North Texas. How can a team be this terrible? Rice is not a bad team. They play tough and beat teams they should. They really can be a good team within their own demographic (i.e. their conference). They rout North Texas.
DOUBLE PLAY - Pick - Rice -17.5

TCU at Oklahoma (-18.5) - FSNSW - 6:00 pm

TCU is undefeated, confident, and has a great defense. They went into Norman in 2005 and shocked the world by beating a top 5 Oklahoma team. That year's Oklahoma team was just a tad overrated. This year's team is not. They are a totally different animal this year. TCU doesn't have near the offense to hang with Oklahoma. They may be able to slow the Oklahoma offense, but they may not score 10 points for the whole game. Stoops will not be caught off guard again against TCU.
Pick - Oklahoma -18.5

Mississippi State at LSU (-24) - ESPN2 - 6:30 pm

LSU won another thriller and an emotional game against Auburn last week. The dominating thought would be that they would have a letdown this week, against an inferior opponent, and in a far less intense environment. Not LSU, they're way too talented for that to happen.
Pick - LSU -24

South Florida (-8.5) at NC State - ESPNU - 6:30 pm

NC State somehow snuck up on East Carolina last week and upset them at home. There is no way they should have been able to beat ECU. South Florida has too many athletes, has proven it can win on the road, and no way NC State has anything left in the tank to beat a much more talented South Florida team. South Florida is damn good, and will put NC State in their place.
Pick - South Florida -8.5

Alabama at Georgia (-7) - ESPN - 6:45 pm

Alabama is a classic case of the media hyping up a signature program of a sport the minute they look like they have a sliver of hope of being good again. Alabama is not that good. They beat an overhyped Clemson team, a terrible Arkansas team, and has looked average in the other 2 games. Georgia beats them by 14 points. Alabama will lose 4 games this year, mark it down.
Pick - Georgia -7

Virginia Tech at Nebraska (-7) - ABC - 7:00 pm

I'm still not sure what to think of Nebraska. The new coaches have definitely changed the culture back to what Nebraska should be. They are more disciplined, more passionate, and there's definitely a better vibe than what was seen for the past 4 years. That said, they couldn't run the ball effectively against inferior teams, their defense has looked average, and the passing game hasn't been as good as I thought it would be. Virginia Tech is an ugly team. An ugly offense. A good defense. They definitely keep it close, and this game more than likely a 3 point game, with either team having equal chances of winning.
Pick - Virginia Tech +3


Thursday, September 18, 2008

Weekend TV Preview

- In the spirit of the famous Leprechaun video, another gem from the Dirty South.....

On to picks.....a terrible week last week.

Last weekend - 3-10-1
YTD - 25-24-1


West Virginia (-3) at Colorado - ESPN - 7:30 pm
West Virginia has officially burned me. They have proven to be woefully 1-dimensional, getting embarassed against East Carolina, scoring 3 points, throwing for 75 yards, and only rushing for 179 yards. 1 dimensional teams do not do well on the road, against a rowdy crowd, and an inspired team. Colorado, when inspired and playing what they perceive as a good team, can be dangerous as hell. Give me points, and give me another bad performance passing by Pat White.
Pick - Colorado +3


Baylor at UCONN (-12) - ESPN2 - 7:00 pm

Baylor has posted back to back blowout wins at home, with Robert Griffin running and throwing with efficiency and electricity. I really don't know much about UCONN, except that they have a decent team and have really risen from the ranks of the cellar in the past few years. Baylor is still bad, and they're on the road, and I'll take a home favorite of less than 14 points against Baylor any day of the week.
Pick - UCONN -12


East Carolina (-7.5) at NC State - ESPN - 11:00 am

East Carolina is this year's South Florida or Rutgers. An out of nowhere team that has caught the media's attention, and now they're all you hear about. They are no doubt a good team, and they will get exposed at some point this year, but NC State is the worst major conference team in America. 2 blowout losses by below average teams (Clemson and South Carolina), and 1 ten point win against William & Mary. They get hammered at home.
Pick - East Carolina -7.5

Iowa at Pittsburgh (-1) - ESPN2 - 11:00 am

If it involves Pitt, I hate it. I hate their offense, their style of play, their city, their stadium. I get depressed when Pitt is on TV and at home. I hate their Athletic Director, Steve Pederson for single handedly setting Nebraska back 10 years. I hate Dave Wannstedt for being an absolutely terrible in-game head coach. I hate their stadium, a stale, boring professional stadium that is never even 50% full and turns into a dirt field come October. And I hate Pittsburgh the city, it's a nasty, industrialized, depressing piece of crap hole in the earth.
Pick - Iowa +1

Troy at Ohio State (-21) - Big 10 Network - 11:00 am

Another team I despise, Ohio State. All the hype in the world due to the East Coast Media Hype Machine. And consistently failing when it comes to hanging with top teams in the nation. For a small school, Troy has talent and speed. They have the goods to hang with the big boys. Have to take Troy with 3 TD's out of principle. After watching Ohio U hang with Ohio State, give me Troy.
Pick - Troy +21

Central Florida at Boston College (-10.5) - ESPNU - 12:00 pm

Central Florida gave South Florida a really tough game last week. This is a good team with tons of speed and good weapons. Boston College is not a bad team, but they're not a good team either. Someone with speed at the skill positions can hang with them. And since it's not November and in the 30's, I give UCF a fighting chance.
Pick - UCF +10.5

Arizona (-2.5) at UCLA - FSNSW - 2:00 pm

This game baffles me. UCLA has played 1 good half (2nd half vs. Tennessee), and has played like the worst team in the nation the rest of the time. 59-0 at BYU? Arizona killed 2 bad teams at home, and then went and lost at New Mexico, a very weak team who got beat at home by an even weaker team, Texas A&M. I guess give me the home team with points, and who at least has Norm Chow and Rick Neuheisel on their sidelines.
Pick - UCLA +2.5

Miami (-4) at Texas A&M - ABC - 2:30 pm

Texas A&M is pretty bad. All around, just a bad team. It's crazy to think that they may not even be better than Baylor this year. Miami has a great defense (as shown in their game at Florida), and has tons of speed as always. But the offense and the QB is not very good, no matter what Musburger and Herbstreit said last week as they were trying to induct him into the Hall of Fame during the game. Look for an ugly, defensive game and Miami winning by a score of about 17-6.
Pick - Miami -4

Florida (-7.5) at Tennessee - CBS - 2:30 pm

Florida didn't look overly impressive against Miami at home. The offensive line and running game didn't look good at all. Not good when you can't run the ball on the road in the SEC. Tennessee has just enough talent to either pull this one out, or keep it within 7 points. They will be able to contain the Florida offense for the most part. The question is whether they'll be able to generate any points against Florida. Either way, expect a close game.
Pick - Tennessee +7.5

Notre Dame at Michigan State (-8.5) - NBC - 2:30 pm

Meet yet another program that draws my ire. Notre Dame, another queen of the East Coast Media Hype Machine, goes to Michigan State this week. MSU is not a bad team, barely losing on the road at Cal, and winning comfortably in the 2 other games. Notre Dame beat a bad Michigan team, and needed supreme luck against San Diego State at home just to sneak away with a win. Michigan State will roll them. Charlie Weis's schematic advantage that he claims he owns over every program in college football will blow up in his face yet again.
Pick - Michigan State -8.5

Utah (-7.5) at Air Force - Versus - 3:00 pm

Utah has dreams of the BCS, and has a really good team. A versatile, experienced QB and great coaching. Air Force always plays tough, no matter how out-manned they may be. I expect a tough game for Utah, with them barely sneaking out with a win. Air Force can grind out clock, and should have a good home crowd making things tough. But expect a Utah win.
Pick - Air Force +7.5

Wake Forest at Florida State (-4) - ESPN2 - 6:00 pm

Florida State could be on the way back to respectability, but I need more evidence than beating two 1-AA teams at home. Wake Forest is good team, very disclipined, well coached, and has already beaten 2 major conference teams. I'm a Jim Grobe fan and a believer. Give me the 4 points.
Pick - Wake Forest +4

Rice at Texas (-30.5) - FSNSW - 6:00 pm

Texas is quietly putting on dominating performances. While Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Missouri get all the headlines, Texas is demolishing teams. Their offensive line is back to top form after a down year, Colt McCoy is a year older and is noticeably better built to withstand a pounding. He's also putting up stats that rival Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel. The defense is playing with an edge now with Muschamp doing his best Joe Avezzano fake intensity bit on the sidelines. The only question, the running back situation, doesn't seem to be a problem as long as McCoy keeps picking people apart while barely being touched. Their lack of run game may haunt them at some point, but not against Rice. The roll continues....
Pick - Texas -30.5

Ball State at Indiana (-3) - Big 10 Network - 6:00 pm

Ball State is an exciting team that can put up points on a lot of teams. Indiana also has a really good offense. Both have dual threat QB's that are the main cogs in their team's engines. Expect an unusually exciting offensive game that involves a Big 10 team. This could really be a game where both teams score in the 40's. Give me the home team.
Pick - Indiana -3

LSU (-2.5) at Auburn - ESPN - 6:45 pm

The game of the week. A classic must watch SEC game. Tons of speed. At night with 85,000 screaming, drunk idiots. Great uniforms. SEC pageantry. Ron Franklin on the call. I can't wait. I would like to think LSU all the way on this one, especially after Auburn's 3-2 barnburner last week at Mississippi State. LSU has a new QB, but has talent everywhere else. Auburn's offense is still adjusting to a new spread style, and will not have any leeway against a bad ass LSU defense.
Pick - LSU -2.5

TCU (-24) at SMU - CBSCS - 7:00 pm

A potentially exciting game. June Jones has a chance to end TCU's BCS hopes very early in the season. Something tells me this will be a close game. TCU loves to make games ugly, and SMU will score some points. TCU has a history of playing down to SMU's level.....
Pick - SMU +24

Georgia (-7) at Arizona State - ABC - 7:00 pm

Sun Devil Stadium will be loud. Georgia hasn't traveled west of the Mississippi since the 60's. Arizona State is a team that will play terrible against terrible teams, and will rise up against good teams. Dennis Erickson has enough athletes, Rudy Carpenter is a good enough QB to lead them to some points, and Arizona State will win this game. Georgia has a weak offensive line, and that is never a good thing when you're on the road, and fighting against speed and a loud home crowd.
Pick - Arizona State +7 and an outright win

Fresno State (-7) at Toledo - ESPNU - 7:15 pm

Fresno State will make up for a loss last weekend at home to Wisconsin. I have nothing else on this game except I'm a believer in Pat Hill on the road against a lesser team.
Pick - Fresno State -7