The NoTex Rant: Cuban's Big Idea

- Not sure how this could get done, much would have to be worked out. But in theory, it's a brilliant idea.

The subprime market is in shambles. The housing bubble has burst, lenders are getting burned (they only have themselves to blame by the way) because debtors are unable to pay their mortgages. And these debtors are people who have very low credit scores, and probably were in no position to take on mortgages, but with lenders very liberal in their lending procedures back in the years of the housing boom, they were able to secure these loans. Not good.

Mark Cuban to the rescue........

Solution for the Real Estate Market ? Take Your House Public ?
Aug 13th 2007 10:42AM

I'm far far from being a financial genius. i try to get partners who run the numbers and deal with details. My business strength is in understanding where technology is going (in the areas I pay attention to), what the business applications of that technology are and most importantly, how to sell them.

Thats a polite way of saying that I'm not a details guy.

I mention this because as they say, "The Devil is in the Details", and I have no idea how to make happen what I'm about to propose. Nor do I know if there are specific laws or common sense "rules of the marketplace" that make this idea just plain stupid. Who knows. What I do know is that I'm curious about whether this would work and there is no better way to open an idea to criticism or support than by posting it on my blog. So here goes.

In the residential real estate world, the concept of buying a house is simple. You pick the house, negotiate a price, then agree to a payment arrangement.

The payment arrangement options are pretty straightforward.

You can pay for it with cash.
You can borrow money to pay for whatever amount that you cant or choose not to pay on the house. The payment terms are then set between you and the lender

This has worked well for a long time. A successful purchase of the house can be quickly defined as being able to make the payments you have committed to make, under the terms you have agreed to, until the house is paid off, all while gaining the utility of living in the house.

The problem with this approach is that when things go wrong and you can't make the payments the "solutions" are very binary.
1. You find a way to make your lender happy.
2. Your house is sold in an effort to satisfy your debt to the lender.

The binary nature of residential real estate financing also lends itself to being an attractive market for "sharks". We dont call the houses we live in "assets", we call them homes. They are very personal and important to us. Which in turn clouds our judgement. People who are at risk of losing their homes get desperate and take measures that aren't necessarily in their best interests just to save their homes and their families from grief.

There has to be a better way to protect homebuyers on the downside.

Lets contrast the financing process of individual homebuyers with funding in the business world. Businesses have any number of ways of raising capital for corporate purposes but they basically can be boiled down to two:

They can raise money via debt.

They can raise money via equity sale.

Debt resolution in the business world is just as binary as it is in residential real estate. If you can't pay the debt, you get foreclosed on and everyone probably goes home unhappy.

Which is exactly why , rather than borrowing money, most startups and growing businesses turn to the equity sale of some percentage of their company to raise capital. Need confirmation of this ? Look at the number of bonds available on national exchanges vs the number of stocks for sale on exchanges . The number of stocks is far greater than bonds and thats on the listed exchanges. Throw in the OTC and Pink Sheet markets and the numbers dwarf debt offerings even more dramatically.

Which leads to the question of...

Why can't home owners sell some percentage of equity in their homes on a listed exchange ? Why can't I
"Take My House Public ?"

Why not create a market or exchange where homeowners can sell equity in their homes ?

The rules could be very eimple
1. The house is appraised by a company approved by the exchange that lists the houses.
2. "Shares" are set with a Par Value of 10pct of the appraised value. For a 100k dollar house, there are 10 shares potentially available. However at no point in time can more than 40pct of the "shares" in a home be sold. We dont want the opportunity for "hostile takeovers"
3. The price of the shares will of course be set by the market. In a hot market it will be set above par, in a tough market like today, it will sell below Par.
4. All Proceeds from the sale of shares MUST be used to pay down any debt on the home.

This is the key element of this approach. By selling equity in a home, the buyer gets an asset based security that will move up and down with the market. If this market is big enough, there should be enough liquidity to move in and out of positions.

The seller receives cash that can be used to pay down the debt and thereby reduce his/her monthly payments. The seller loses a part of the upside if the market for the home improves and prices go up, but thats a small price to pay for not going into foreclosure.

Beyond creating liquidity options for individuals in the housing market, which i think is a good thing, I think this will also reduce the volatility in the market. Despite the best efforts of the residential Real Estate industry, no one ever really knows what their house is worth until you try to sell it. This exchange listing approach will certainly make for better information available for the market, which in turn will also reduce the volatility.

It will also increase the options of homeowners who have paid off their homes to acquire capital for personal uses. If a homeowner has completely paid off his/her home and wants to raise money for whatever purpose, a vacation, a car, education, whatever, rather than taking on debt , they could get their home appraised, have the
option of selling equity in my home that I would not be obligated to pay back. An option that would create a significant flow of capital back into the hands of consumers

How can this actually come together ?

It wouldn't be easy. It would probably take the country's biggest banks working together to create an exchange that develops the public market for home equity one city or region at a time. They would have to identify a means to safely set values so that Post IPO price the share pricing was stable. There would have to be provisions set for what happened when a home was sold. Shareholders would have to be paid their share of the salesprice upon closing.

There are thousands of things that i haven't thought of that would make or break this idea, but I think at its most basic, the concept is sound. However one thing I am sure of, this approach would reduce the Boom Bust cycles of residential real estate and the dramatic impact they have on our economy

- Related news - Existing home sales to hit a new 5 year low. This news coming out just as the Dow dips below 13,000. Rough times on Wall St.

AP
Home Sales Fall Nearly 11 Percent in 2Q
Wednesday August 15, 10:18 am ET
Existing Home Sales Fall by Nearly 11 Percent in Second Quarter, Home Prices Drop

WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. existing home sales fell nearly 11 percent in the second quarter from last year's levels as the residential real estate market's slump continued, an industry group said Wednesday.

The National Association of Realtors said existing homes sold at a annual rate of 5.91 million homes in the second quarter, down from a pace of 6.63 million in the quarter a year ago.

Nationwide median home prices dropped 1.5 percent to $223,800 from $227,100 in the same quarter last year. The median price is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less.

However, the real estate agents' trade group saw encouraging price trends in many metropolitan areas. In more than 60 percent of 149 metro areas around the country, median prices increased from last year's levels.

The Salt Lake City and Binghamton, N.Y. areas actually had price gains of nearly 20 percent for single-family homes, while the Elmira, N.Y. and Melbourne, FL areas had price declines of 15 percent or more.

The report comes comes as delinquencies among borrowers with weak, or subprime, credit have risen dramatically over the past year, and other loans are showing weakness as well. Lenders have dramatically tightened their borrowing standards amid fears that delinquencies will rise further.

"Although home prices are relatively flat, more metro areas are showing price gains with general improvement since bottoming-out in the fourth quarter of 2006," Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said in a statement. "Recent mortgage disruptions will hold back sales temporarily, but the fundamental momentum clearly suggests stabilizing price trends in many local markets."

The San Francisco Bay Area was the most expensive region of the country, with median prices of $865,000 for San Jose and $846,000 for San Francisco.

Last week, the Realtors trade group lowered its monthly sales forecast, predicting that home sales will hit a five-year low this year. The revised forecast calls for existing home sales of 6.04 million in 2007, down 6.8 percent from last year. This year's sales would be the lowest since 2002, when sales hit 5.63 million.

- Nebraska News/Notes

- A very good 2007 preview

Big 12 Football Preview '07: Nebraska

Jeff AdamsPosted Aug 10th 2007 7:00AM by Jeff Adams
Filed under: Nebraska Football, Big 12
Ah, Big 12 North. We had to include at least one contender from the Big 12's minor league division. An editorial vote, therefore, resulted in Nebraska's inclusion here. The Huskers are my labor of love and source of both joy and pain on Saturday's in the fall. Is a double digit win total too much to ask for?

WHY THEY'LL WIN
Continued progress is the party line in Lincoln. The Huskers have seen their win count jump from 5, to 8 and finally 9 victories during Bill Callahan's tenure. That's no minor feat given the renovation job Callahan faced. Complacency among the previous coaching staff led to poor talent evaluation and a series of modest recruiting classes. Consequently, Callahan inherited a mish-mash of power-option square pegs seeking solace in the round hole of his West Coast Offense. But from the ashes of the option has risen a dynamic, albeit inconsistent offensive attack. Nebraska finished in the Top 20 nationally in both total offense and scoring offense a year ago. The Huskers lost a heartbreaker at home to Texas and fell 17-14 to Auburn in a closely fought Cotton Bowl. Turn those results around and you're likely looking at the Huskers as a preseason Top 10 team this year.

As 2007 kicks off, Husker Nation is buzzing about the debut of former Arizona State quarterback Sam Keller. Keller might be the most talented passing quarterback to play at Nebraska since Vince Ferragamo, another transfer from the west coast, pitched the pigskin around the plains in the mid-1970s. Although he'll have just one year to prove himself, Keller should have all of the tools to run the Cornhuskers' offense to its fullest potential. His physically less-gifted predecessor, Zac Taylor - who was recruited by the likes of Marshall and Memphis out of junior college – left as the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year. That's a tribute not only to Callahan's NFL-style offensive system, but also to his ability to get the best out of his signal callers.

An often-overlooked and perhaps even more valuable factor is the off-season promotion of Shawn Watson to offensive coordinator. Unlike previous offensive coordinator Jay Norvell, who left for UCLA, Watson brings a wealth of experience to the job in Lincoln. Watson ran Colorado's West Coast Offense for six years under Gary Barnett. During that time the Buffaloes displayed prodigious rushing and passing attacks on their way to four Big 12 North titles. With a new, experienced and trusted set of eyes on the field, the Nebraska offense could reach another level in 2007.

WHY THEY'LL LOSE

For all of the progress Nebraska's offense has shown, they still appear hamstrung at times by Callahan's playcalling and game management decisions. Against USC, Callahan was criticized for his ultra-conservative, keep the game close approach. More vexing, however, was his decision to run three wide toss-sweeps when facing 3rd-and-short against a group of linebackers that run from sideline-to-sideline as well as unit any in the country. Sure, the first one actually worked, picking up the first down, but the next two were absolutely stuffed netting a ridiculous –8 total yards. Exhibit B – Nebraska leads Texas 20-19 with under two minutes remaining and faces a 3rd-and-3. All Nebraska needs is a first down to run out the clock and preserve the upset. Now is the perfect time that toss-sweep, which had already been successful on 3rd down earlier in the game. Even if it fails, you simply punt and force Texas to drive 50 yards with no timeouts remaining for the game winning field goal. Instead, Callahan calls a play-action pass, which Terrence Nunn catches for the first down, but then unfortunately fumbles away to the Longhorns. So, yeah, there's that.

Defensively Nebraska must replace its entire defensive line from a year ago. That includes a pair of defensive ends in Adam "I must break you" Carriker and Jay Moore who were drafted in the first and fourth rounds of the NFL Draft. Barry Turner is being looked upon to take center stage in 2007 at one DE position. He's showed flashes of brilliance during the past two seasons, but must prove he can line up on every down. Turner unfortunately missed valuable practice time in the spring following shoulder surgery. Ndamukong Suh will anchor the line at one of the tackle spots and might actually be the best player on the defense. Finding someone to line up next to him will be a major task during fall camp. The wildcard might be Ty Steinkuhler who can play inside or out and has displayed an impressive motor in a reserve role. Ultimately, the group vying to replace the departures along the front four is heavy on potential, but light on experience. The bottom line is that a team rarely gets better by losing players like Carriker and Moore, along with defensive tackles Ola Dagunduro and Barry Cryer.

HOW TO BEAT THEM

It sounds trite, but stop the run. Bill Callahan's West Coast Offense is built upon balance, but he generally favors a run-first approach. As evidence, the Huskers ran the ball 143 more times than they threw it a year ago. When the ground game is successful, Nebraska usually wins. In their nine wins in 2006, the Huskers averaged 4.69 yards per carry. In their five losses they averaged just 3.10, and that number is heavily inflated by a 5.28 yard per carry average against Oklahoma State in a game that saw a second half implosion from the Blackshirt defense. Stopping the run might be less challenging in 2007 with the early departure of running back Brandon Jackson to the NFL. Marlon Lucky will look to take his place in a fulltime capacity this season. Unfortunately, Lucky experienced curious medical issues during the offseason and has failed to live up to his recruitment hype. Cody Glenn will also get a shot as a power runner, but he too, has been slowed by injuries.

Nebraska's pass defense was neither stellar, nor awful in 2006, ranking 36th nationally in passing efficiency defense. But the one glaring weakness against the pass was an extreme susceptibility to the double move. Teams on Nebraska's schedule used this pattern time and time again with huge results against the Big Red a year ago. And while much of the team's struggles can be traced to the loss of NFL prospect Zackary Bowman during fall drills, Andre Jones and Cortney Grixby (pictured at right) showed only marginal improvement against the double move as the season wore on. Fortunately Nebraska's corners will be far more experienced in 2007 and Bowman should return from a torn patellar tendon by conference play. Combine this with improved safety play and the Blackshirts could be less susceptible to big plays from receivers utilizing the double move this year.

HOW TO LOSE TO THEM

Give up big yardage on first down. One of the basic tenents of Callahan's offense is staying on schedule with regards to down and distance. Give up five or six yards on first down and the Husker offense becomes less predictable and more dangerous. Consider that in Nebraska's nine wins a year ago the offense gained four or more yards on 47% of their first downs. In their five losses, the Huskers gained four or more yards on just 39% of their first downs. That might not seem like a huge difference, until you look at what happens on third down. In Nebraska's wins they converted 53% of their third downs. In contrast, the Huskers third down conversion rate was just 33% in their five losses. When opponents give up big yardage on first down, they open themselves up to a collection of middle screens, shovel passes and trick plays that had all kinds of success for Nebraska a year ago.

Get caught up in the smoke and mirrors. Nebraska's offense features a dizzying array of pre-snap shifts and motions, and at times resembles a square dance in pads. These movements are especially prevalent during Callahan's script as he examines how the defense will react. Rarely does the pre-snap activity seem to amount to much. But fail to react properly to a shift or motion and find yourself misaligned, and Callahan's quarterbacks can hurt you.

PROGNOSIS

Expectations are always sky-high in Husker Nation, but with the talent Callahan has brought to Lincoln, fans are definitely counting on marked improvement. But with the way the schedule sets up in 2007, they may have to settle for another small step, rather than a large leap back into the nation's elite. Barring an upset against #1 ranked USC in week in three (and that's not entirely unimaginable) the Huskers will start the year 2-1. They'll likely be 4-1 heading into a huge road battle at Missouri. That game will not only help decide the Big 12 North race, but could also set the tone for the rest of the season. Nebraska then gets two of its three Big 12 South foes at home in Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. Winning at Texas will be another challenge, for the Huskers who have struggled on the road during Callahan's tenure. Ultimately 10-2 is not out of the question, nor is 11-1 with some home-cooked magic against USC or a stolen victory in Austin. But anything less than a split in games Missouri and Texas could mean 9-3 and a second place finish in the Big 12 North

- USA Today's preview

Big 12 preview: Nebraska's plans on track

To Bill Callahan's east, there is Charlie Weis. Three seasons into his tenure at Notre Dame, he and the Irish own a couple of Bowl Championship Series appearances.
To Callahan's south, there's Urban Meyer. A national champion in just his second year at Florida.

To the west … well, let's not even get into Pete Carroll and the juggernaut that is Southern California.

At Nebraska, Callahan's three years as coach have produced considerably less flash and dash. There's progress — from a five-win debut in 2004 to eight wins in '05 to nine a year ago — but there's also an 0-5 record against top 10-ranked opponents and just one win against a team ranked anywhere by season's end. That was against Pittsburgh in '04, when the Panthers missed the cut in the final USA TODAY coaches' poll but squeezed in at No. 25 in the Associated Press media rankings.

Callahan is unapologetic. He's not a quick-fix guy. "If you look at our first three years … I think we've been right on schedule. We've been right on track," he says. "The challenge this year is to maintain and improve that.

"I think, collectively, we're very close to the team we want to be. We're on the verge — we're on the cusp of doing some great things."

The degree to which Nebraska's rabid fan base shares his patience is uncertain. A program that owns five national championships has gone nine years without so much as a league title, by far its longest drought since the pre-Bob Devaney days of the '50s and early '60s. Nebraska hasn't seen the top 10 since October 2003.

At Big 12 rival Oklahoma, Bob Stoops won a national championship after the 2000 season and has played for the title twice since. He and the Sooners rolled past Nebraska in the 2006 Big 12 title game.

Callahan appears secure, however. Nebraska athletics director Steve Pederson just got a five-year contract extension, and Callahan is his hire. The school expanded Memorial Stadium by more than 6,500 seats last season, and the Huskers still had no problem extending their NCAA-record string of sellouts to 282. More than 25,000 fans followed them to USC, where they fell 28-10 in September.

If a signature win still is missing, it hasn't been beyond reach. The Huskers played capably at USC. They led Texas until the final half-minute a month later, losing 22-20 on a short field goal. They lost to Auburn by a field goal in the Cotton Bowl.

"We've been banging around with the big guys, the big dogs," says middle linebacker Corey McKeon, a senior and the cornerstone of the Blackshirts defense, "and now this is the year we start beating them. You look at everything. We've got the schedule. This is the year to do it."

Certainly, there is opportunity. Nebraska opens Sept. 1 vs. Nevada, travels next to Wake Forest, then gets a showcase matchup at home with No. 1 USC.

The Big 12 North remains winnable, the Huskers needing an early-October victory at Missouri to set up a run at another berth in the league title game. Progress, of course, means winning it, something a North team has done just once 2001.

"We see anything less than winning the Big 12 as a disappointment. (That) and having a shot at a BCS bowl," says Bo Ruud, another senior linebacker. "If you said we'd do exactly what we did last year, it would be a disappointment to us even though, for a lot of teams in the country, that would be a good year. Us, we're setting higher goals."

Nebraska must replace 10 offensive and defensive starters from a team that finished 9-5 a year ago, including quarterback Zac Taylor, Brandon Jackson, who ran for nearly 1,000 yards, and the entire defensive line. Callahan has recruited impressively, though, and there is talent to plug in. Behind the retooled defensive line, McKeon, Ruud and the rest of the linebacking corps are among the nation's best.

The Huskers' West Coast offense, which put up nearly 31 points a game a year ago, features a veteran line, two backs —Marlon Lucky and Cody Glenn— who ran for a combined 1,098 yards and 14 touchdowns last year and an intriguing new QB in Sam Keller. Officially, Keller is battling fourth-year junior Joe Ganz for the starting job. Unofficially, he has been the heir apparent since he transferred from Arizona State last August, stung by then-ASU coach Dirk Koetter's decision to start somebody else after Keller had passed for 2,165 yards and 20 TDs in seven games as a junior. A ligament tear in his right thumb ended his 2005 season early.

Productive as he was at Arizona State, the 6-4, 240-pound senior says, "I expect to play better" at Nebraska. "I've got the game experience. And I've had all this extra time to fine-tune things, to watch film, to throw with the wideouts, to work out. I'm as big and as strong as I've ever been. … All the gears are aligned."

Missouri, not Nebraska, was the choice to win the North, but Callahan says he pays that little mind, just as he says he discounts suggestions that, in Year 4 of his tenure, a division title is a mere appetizer. "I don't personally talk to the staff … about Year 4 and start pounding the table and screaming and yelling," he says. "Everybody understands. You want to improve. It's about consistency, and it's about elevating your performance. That's our goal."

- More man-love for Sam Keller.

NU Football: Huskers get older, wiser Keller
BY RICH KAIPUST
WORLD-HERALD BUREAU

LINCOLN — Nearly one year removed from his high-profile jump from Arizona State to Nebraska, quarterback Sam Keller can definitively state one thing that's come from delaying his senior season and the potential start of an NFL career.

Keller believes he has hit a new high under the tutelage of NU coach Bill Callahan and offensive coordinator Shawn Watson.

"I think the teaching I've gotten from these two coaches has been instrumental in how much better I've become as a quarterback," Keller said. "I watch myself on film and I think I've become a lot better."

Until stated otherwise, Keller unofficially is trying to shake Joe Ganz in the race to become the Huskers' starting quarterback. Any announcement could still be almost two weeks away.

But Keller spoke Tuesday of being a more complete package than when he left ASU last Aug. 20 and resurfaced at NU three days later.

I'm gaining a wealth of knowledge that you just can't trade in for anything," Keller said. "It's been real special."

So much for wondering if rustiness might be a problem for the quarterback who hasn't played since October 2005. Keller said a bigger factor is that he's a year older, wiser and more mature, and benefiting from knowing a whole new system.

"I think this offense just gives you a chance to be a lot better," he said. "One of the things I was good at (at ASU) was making throws and being aggressive, and I could put up big numbers. In this offense, Coach Callahan and Coach Watson have taught me to be a good manager of the offense — check the ball down, take throws, take what the defense gives you.

"If you put those two things together, and then put that with experience, a little bit of age and some leadership, then you've got a good mix of things to lead the offense."

Both Keller and Ganz said Tuesday that they've performed well through the first 10 days of preseason camp. The practice repetitions continue to come at about a 50-50 split.

Because the West Coast offense is predicated more on ball control than taking chances, Keller said he has realized the importance of his completion rate being in the 65 to 70 percent range. In 19 career games at Arizona State, eight as a starter, his completion percentage was 58.2.

"Everybody has a bad throw here and there, and I have a couple bad throws here and there sprinkled in," he said. "But as far as consistency, I'm right around 70 percent with completions in camp. I don't feel like I've had any real mental lapses.

"I think I'm handling things well. I'm really picking the stuff up fast. Being in the driver's seat is where I like to be."

Keller said the quarterback competition comes down to who can manage the offense better. Each has been confident and comfortable in carrying that out, according to teammates.

Some might see Ganz as the long shot, but the junior hasn't allowed that to stop him from competing.

"Most people don't think I'm going to win this job, so I'm really kind of the underdog," Ganz said. "I don't feel a lot of pressure. I think that Sam would have more pressure than I would.

"I'm just relaxed and going out there and just trying to have fun. I've had three years of being nervous coming out here. Now it's time for me to have fun and go play football."

Watson said the Husker staff will let Keller and Ganz keep slugging it out.

"They've really competed," he said. "Every day they keep pushing each other, and you see their level of play go up. We've got a real good quarterback situation."

- Bits and pieces from camp so far

Camp Chatter
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
• Not seen: Nebraska took a break from full contact after incorporating scrimmage time into its most recent practices. Although the team is in full pads, offensive coordinator Shawn Watson said hitting was kept to "high and hard" with nobody being taken to the ground.

• Heard: "Every once in a while somebody goes down with heat, but then after they cool him down, we get them back. The heat is our big issue right now, but we're doing good," Watson said during another hot and humid day in Lincoln.

• Stock rising: I-back Major Culbert becomes increasingly valuable on offense the longer Marlon Lucky and Cody Glenn sit out. The former safety has a jump on the position after working at I-back in Cotton Bowl preparations and spring practice.

• Up next: The Huskers hit the 10-day mark when preseason camp continues today.

- Let the Tropical Storm season officially begin.

Tropical storm watch issued for Texas coast

07:49 AM CDT on Wednesday, August 15, 2007

HARLINGEN, Texas - Rescue workers were activated in southern Texas in preparation for heavy rain expected to accompany a tropical depression slowly churning its way through the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

The fifth depression of the Atlantic hurricane season formed late Tuesday and was expected to become a tropical storm before making landfall in Texas on Thursday morning, the National Weather Service said.

At 8 a.m. EDT, the depression was centered 275 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas, and about 310 miles east of La Pesca, Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was moving to the west-northwest at around 13 mph.

Its maximum sustained wind speeds were near 30 mph, and forecasters said it was expected to strengthen. If its wind speeds reach the 39-mph threshold for a tropical storm, it would be named Erin.

The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm watch for the Texas coast from Freeport, south of Houston, southward to the border. The government of Mexico issued a tropical storm watch for the northwest coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

Gov. Rick Perry said he was sending emergency vehicles and personnel to southern Texas in advance of the weather system.

"Because storms have saturated much of our state this summer, many communities in this storm's projected path are at high risk of dangerous flash flooding," Perry said in a statement hours before the tropical storm watch was issued.

He said he was sending 30 vehicles and 60 Texas National Guard members to Weslaco and San Antonio, was activating three helicopter rescue swimmer teams and was putting six teams on standby. Volunteer organizations were being prepared to provide mass care support.

National Weather Service forecaster Tim Speece said the system could bring heavy rains as far north as Victoria and as far inland as the Hill Country.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Dean got a little stronger late Tuesday in the Atlantic but remained far from land early Wednesday, forecasters said.

At 5 a.m. EDT, the storm was centered about 1,170 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean. It had top sustained winds of 50 mph, up from 40 mph on Tuesday. Some strengthening was expected within the next day.

Dean was moving over increasingly warmer waters, where atmospheric conditions could create a favorable environment for intensification into a hurricane by Friday, forecasters said. It was cruising west at about 18 mph. Forecasters said it was too early to tell where Dean will go.

Hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 74 mph.

Hurricane forecasters expect this year's Atlantic hurricane season to be busier than average. Last week, they said as many as 16 tropical storms were likely to form, with nine strengthening into hurricanes.

The season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but August typically marks the start of the most active period. Ten tropical storms developed in the Atlantic last year, but only two made landfall in the United States.

- A P.J. Brown sighting in Phoenix

Or maybe it was Elvis.

A nice guy at KSAZ-TV (Channel 10), the Fox affiliate in Phoenix, answered the phone at 11:26 p.m. Arizona time and did his best to answer a question from Dallas. Yes, the station reported that P.J. Brown was in town Tuesday, talking about a deal with Phoenix GM Steve Kerr. (Sorry, no link).

That would be news for a couple of reasons. Brown's agent, Mark Bartelstein, said Monday that no visits were planned when asked directly. Tuesday, Bartelstein said that Brown might take longer than this week to decide his future.

- Rangers top pick and their #1 D-bag signs. I hope he pans out and am hoping good things for him for the Rangers' sake, but that doesn't mean I have to stop disliking him.

Rangers sign their top pick Beavan

Rangers' first-round pick from Irving bound for Instructional League in Arizona

ARLINGTON – No wonder Blake Beavan sounded relaxed as he began a round of golf Tuesday afternoon.

The Irving right-handed pitcher and Rangers first-round pick was just hours away from signing with the club. The announcement was made official in the seventh inning of Tuesday's 5-3 win over the Royals.

"It feels great," said Beavan, who will receive a signing bonus of about $1.5 million. "We finally got the deal done, and now it's time to move on and soak it all in and then start my job. It's very exciting. I'm ready to go out and play and face some hitters instead of throwing bullpens.

"I want to go out there and help the team out and work on things and try to pursue a major league career."

The Rangers had until 11 p.m. today to sign Beavan, taken 17th overall in the June draft. Negotiations with Beavan's agent, Alan Hendricks, picked up the last few days. Beavan had a physical with the Rangers medical staff Monday, and general manager Jon Daniels had expressed optimism a deal would get done.

No other contract details were released, but under the Major League Baseball "slotting" system to limit bonuses, Beavan was supposed to fall at just over $1.4 million.

Beavan will go to Arizona on Thursday and start a strength-and-conditioning program designed by the club. He'll play in the Instructional League in Arizona later this year.

The Rangers' representatives went to Beavan's house and had him sign the contract during the game. That's one advantage of drafting a hometown player.

Beavan said the report of Rick Porcello's four-year, $7.285 million deal with Detroit, put together by agent Scott Boras, did not affect his negotiations. Porcello, a right-handed pitcher, dropped to Detroit at 27th overall because teams were worried about how much it would cost to sign him.

"If he gets that money, good for him," Beavan said earlier Tuesday. "I'm not trying to get anywhere close to what he's asking for. I'm asking for what I deserve."

Beavan felt like he got that. He said he will focus on making his slider better each year and getting his change-up to being a dominant third pitch. Beavan wouldn't handicap when he might arrive in the majors, saying only that he wasn't in a rush.

"I expected that we'd get him signed," Daniels said. "I'm happy that he's under contract and this part is behind us and he can focus on getting ready to start his career."

Signing Beavan more than 24 hours in advance means Texas can concentrate on its remaining unsigned picks today.

Daniels said some of the Rangers' picks – he wouldn't specify which ones – already had physicals. That's important because the club must agree to terms and the player has to pass a physical before tonight's deadline. That allows negotiations to go to the final minute if necessary.

Daniels and his staff are busy talking with agents of their top picks. Daniels is optimistic about signing right-handed pitcher Neil Ramirez, the 44th overall pick. He remains hopeful on outfielder Julio Borbon, selected 35th overall and represented by Boras.

Fourth-round pick Garrett Nash, an outfielder from Utah, won't get signed. He told the team after the draft that he'd decided to go to Oregon State. The Rangers continue to negotiate with fifth-round pick John Gast, a left-handed pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery. If he signs, it will be above slot, something the Rangers knew when they selected him. Gast dropped in the draft because of the surgery.

"What I wanted to do was have them all signed by July 15 and have them out playing," Daniels said. "But at this point, we're about as far along as we can be given the circumstances."

If the Rangers don't sign Borbon or Ramirez by tonight, the club would get a compensation pick in 2008.

The clock is ticking.

"We love deadlines in this industry," Daniels said. "Everybody responds to them. I'm hopeful that next year, organizationally speaking, we're going to try harder to get deals done earlier."

- Kevin Millwood finally puts it all together for 1 game. 7 IP, 9 K's, 1 ER. Now that's Ace material. Finally.

Battery energizes Rangers' win

01:10 AM CDT on Wednesday, August 15, 2007
By RICHARD DURRETT / The Dallas Morning News
rdurrett@dallasnews.com

ARLINGTON – Two Rangers batterymates took important steps toward redemption in Tuesday's 5-3 win over Kansas City.

Kevin Millwood, who hasn't looked like an ace for much of the season, put together his best outing in a month. He allowed one earned run in seven innings with nine strikeouts and one walk. Maybe it's a sign he's figured out how to fix the problem with his mechanics.

Millwood settled down after giving up a run in the first. He retired 12 consecutive batters at one point. He threw 102 pitches in seven innings. Millwood pitched from the first-base side of the rubber in his last start and did it again Tuesday. He said it allows him to free his arm up and stay more accurate.

"It felt good getting used to the adjustments each time," Millwood said. "I'm locating the ball better and it is helping the breaking ball. I felt like I threw the ball where I wanted to. I kept them off balance."

Millwood allowed two unearned runs in the sixth thanks to two errors on the same play by first baseman Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The 22-year-old couldn't field a ground ball that probably would have ended the inning. He then scurried after it and threw wildly home. Two runs scored. It's all part of the learning process as he gets used to first base.

- The NoTex Rant Top 25

#25 - Missouri
#24 - Hawaii
#23 - Oklahoma St.
#22 - Alabama
#21 - Texas Tech
#20 - South Carolina
#19 - Boston College

- #18 - Boise State

So now what?
After years of being the underground secret that only the diehard fans knew about, Boise State showed the non-believers their record wasn't a fluke, and that there's real, live, tough football being played up Idaho.

Of course, everyone always wants more, and will expect Chris Petersen and his Broncos to pull off Fiesta Bowl-like miracles every time out against the big boys. While the program really might be here to stay, it's asking too much for that to happen again this year.

From the new BCS rules adding a fifth big game, to the Hawaii showdown being in Boise, to Fresno State being a bit down, to having a long-time veteran starter at quarterback in Jared Zabransky, to having a veteran defense that had been growing for a few years, everything came together perfectly for 2006 to be a dream season. It isn't giving Boise State, a program that's won 86 games in eight years, the proper credit to assume it can't put together yet another tremendous campaign, but this isn't last year's team, and everyone will be gunning for them more than ever.

The Broncos have been "the hunted" for a long time in the WAC, but now opponents will be looking for a trophy win, and the national spotlight is certain to be on Boise State every week. Teams with the question marks that this one has at quarterback, receiver, defensive tackle, linebacker and in the kicking game, tend to lose a few tight contests. It took a veteran team with supreme confidence that knew exactly what it was doing to come away with wins like the ones last year against San Jose State, Wyoming and, of course, Oklahoma. Yes, the bar is set so high now that losing just two regular season games might be cause for alarm.

Hawaii will be the "it" WAC team this year, Fresno State will rebound, San Jose State will be even nastier, and others, like New Mexico State, will have just enough firepower to pull off a few upsets. You'll have to forgive Boise State if it's not too worried, having being through it all before and still winning WAC title after WAC title. It just might be hard to get everyone excited about "just" being the conference champion, after they've seen Tempe.

What to watch for on offense: Ground Broncos. The offense has never gotten enough credit for its strong ground game, being regarded as a tricky, somewhat gimmicky attack. The Fiesta Bowl might have given the impression that Petersen and his staff use smoke and mirrors, but when times get tough, the running game kicks in with a power attack that's surprisingly physical. Until Taylor Tharp or Bush Hamdan and the passing game settle in, expect the offense to revolve around star back Ian Johnson, running behind a good offensive line. However, with center Paul Lucariello out for the year with a torn ACL, it'll take a while to come up with a steady starting five up front.

What to watch for on defense: More of the same, but not quite as much production. While the D will still be strong, don't expect it to finish 14th in the nation again. The run defense always looks good statistically, since few teams in the WAC know how to pound the ball effectively, but the Broncos can also get into the backfield. Relying more on speed and quickness than size and strength, the Broncos use a nice rotation on the defensive front and well-timed blitzes to bring pressure from all angles. Expect it to be great at swarming around the ball and gang tackling.

The team will be far better if … the starting quarterback is efficient. Boise State lives off winning the turnover battle and coming through with clutch offensive plays when necessary. That starts with the quarterback, and Tharp and Hamdan have to prove they can be steady. The winner of the starting job isn't going to be Zabransky when it comes to running the ball, but they have to connect on their third-down throws, keep the chains moving and provide just enough of a passing threat to take the pressure off Johnson and the ground game.

The Schedule: The Broncos get three early chances to build on their 2006 season, facing Washington in Seattle before sneaky-tough home games against Wyoming and Southern Miss. Fortunately, five of the first six games are on the screaming blue turf, before road trips to Louisiana Tech and Fresno State. While San Jose State has to come to Boise, the Hawaii game is in Aloha Stadium on national TV on a Friday in late November.

Best Offensive Player: Junior RB Ian Johnson. How can he possibly top last season? All he did was run for 25 touchdowns and 1,714 yards, average 6.2 yards per carry, beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, melt every woman's heart and make every man vomit with a nationally televised marriage proposal after beating the Sooners. He bulked up to around 210 pounds to be able to take more of a pounding this year. Considering he handled the ball more than 20 times in eight games, he's already used to getting hit.

Best Defensive Player: Senior S Marty Tadman. Boise State has plenty of issues on defense going into this year, but the secondary should be set with the return of corners Orlando Scandrick and Kyle Wilson, along with Tadman, their second-leading tackler. Quick enough to be a good punt returner and instinctive enough to pick off 12 passes in his career, with two against Oklahoma, he'll be the playmaker the rest of the defense revolves around.

Key player to a successful season: Senior QB Taylor Tharp or junior QB Bush Hamdan. While it would appear to be Tharp's time to finally take over the reins from Zabransky, he's in a tight battle. He doesn't have anywhere near the mobility or arm of Zabransky, but he knows the system and has prepared himself for the last two seasons to step in. Even so, Hamdan ran more with the first team in spring ball.

The season will be a success if ... Boise State wins the WAC title…again. While that might seem like small potatoes now that the program has tasted the big-time, winning the conference title would be a nice achievement considering all the turnover, the bull's-eye on the back, and the trips to Fresno State and Hawaii.

Key game: Nov. 23 at Hawaii. If all goes according to plan, the hype for this game will be building all year long, creating what could be the most-watched WAC game ever. Hawaii will be ready to make a statement in what should be the battle for the WAC title. By the end of the year, Boise State should have jelled, with all the new starters having 11 games of experience.

2006 Fun Stats:

First half scoring. Boise State 298; Opponents 96
Fourth down conversions: Boise State 17-21 (81%); Opponents 10-19 (33%)
Rushing touchdowns: Boise State 39; Opponents 7

Boise State Broncos
Team Information
Head coach: Chris Petersen
2nd year: 13-0
Returning Lettermen:
Off. 20, Def. 18, ST 0
Lettermen Lost: 19

Ten Best Players
1. RB Ian Johnson, Jr.
2. OT Ryan Clady, Jr.
3. S Marty Tadman, Sr.
4. CB Orlando Scandrick, Jr.
5. CB Kyle Wilson, Soph.
6. C Jeff Cavender, Sr.
7. OG Tad Miller, Sr.
8. DE Mike T. Williams, Jr.
9. DE Nick Schlekeway, Sr.
10. OL Andrew Woodruff. Jr.

2007 Schedule
Aug. 30 Weber State
Sept. 8 at Washington
Sept. 15 Wyoming
Sept. 27 Southern Miss
Oct. 7 New Mexico State
Oct. 14 Nevada
Oct. 20 at Louisiana Tech
Oct. 26 at Fresno State
Nov. 3 San Jose State
Nov. 10 at Utah State
Nov. 17 Idaho
Nov. 23 at Hawaii

- Lee Corso drops an F bomb